I think you are right, but keep in mind we are currently in the middle of raising interest rates and unemployment has not gone up. So what I am trying to say is, rather than say A (rising interest rates) -> D (recession), acknowledge what happens is A (rising interest rates) -> B (less money supply) -> C (less employment) -> D (recession)

Because if you don't acknowledge the steps, you can't explain what is happening today. Rates are going up and unemployment isn't. The economy is complicated.