Ask HN: Can I make a financial bet on Twitter?

Morgan Stanley has lots of twitter bonds they'd like to get rid of. You could probably buy the bonds directly (at a 70% discount).

The result of the purchase has saddled the company with debt around $13B and historically the balance sheet hasn't shown a consistent cycle of profits, user growth, etc.

What is making you think it will be significantly profitable, much less just profitable?

You can invest in Ark Venture Fund which has some stake in Twitter, but is run by Cathie Wood so it is basically like throwing money away (though most would say that about Twitter anyways).

Otherwise Twitter exceeding expectations might bleed into Tesla share prices because the opposite is definitely true, but it wouldn't be a long term effect since mostly it's because people are scared of Elon having to sell more TSLA

You could maybe lever into their bond issuances, if you can find a seller and suitable leverage? On BusinessInsider's screener I see as high as 5% coupon which isn't great in this environment.

It's less direct, but the battle for eyeballs is sort of zero-sum, so if you think that Twitter could take a chunk out of META, SNAP, PINS, userbase then inverse exposure there may be your route, or possibly the news media... businesses hedge their model against this sort of risk too by M&A.

> Is there any way that I can make a large bet with the naysayers about the future of Twitter?

Make the most flattering posts about Musk on Twitter, do that for at least a month, guy loves fluffers so chances are he'll notice at least one and will retweet, from there you have a chance at getting in the special club of favorites fans like that guy from India.

It's the same of groupies showing their breasts to band members on stage, the social dynamics are incredibly similar too!

For non-accredited investors, getting a job at Twitter would likely be the best way to get a meaningful position.

I don't have a specific recommendation because I don't use any of them, but as far as I understand, prediction markets allow users to propose new predictions that can be bet on. Another option is to simply attempt to directly bet someone who is willing to take the opposite bet. There should be no shortage of takers. This is obviously riskier since you're not a book and can't do much to enforce payment, so usually a very public bet with someone who is well-funded and would rather pay than suffer the embarrassment of backing out is a typical approach.

Is this predicated on analysis, or is it more gut feeling and Elon's past performance? I ask because I don't see a path to profitability for Twitter, and would love to know what I am missing.

I'm inclined to agree with your prediction.

Maybe identify stocks that have an inverse relationship to Twitter. Meta perhaps? I don't know.

The question of investing is not whether they will be successful or not. It is whether your estimate is better than the markets. Consider that the market is not composed entirely of HN/Reddit pessimists, so what you think may be a good bet, may not be.

I assume you could use a prediction market; someone must be offering odds.

I'll gladly take your money. I've got some prime beachfront properties you may be interested in as well.

Buy shares in Tesla. If Twitter succeeds Elon will need to sell less stock to fund Twitter.