Recession case: inflation depresses other spending, new home starts are decreasing, strong dollar, Chinese economy wobbly, EU economy weak, continued supply chain disruptions, PMI weaker, ad spending curtailed.

Soft landing case: Goldilocks scenario for USA employment; inflation has decreased; chip shortage over; few layoffs outside tech; airline, hospitality, defense, healthcare, energy sectors booming; China economy may strengthen with softened zero-covid policy.