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0 pointse1g3y ago0 comments

Warp got $23M from folks like the CEOs of Figma, Salesforce, and LinkedIn - they all expected this fruit fly to turn into a unicorn.

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xkcd-sucks3y ago

Looking at the product page, guessing the money is in making deals with crappy IT departments to adopt it across whole orgs for the enterprise "advanced security and compliance features". In that case i would also expect to see a bunch of submarine blog posts on how terminals are a liability due to "shell scripts are shadow it", "disgruntled employees exfiltrate data with curl commands", "iterm2 lets users bypass MDM" etc. idk thr whole thing just seems gross

rcoveson3y ago

If I bet $1 for a 1:10 chance to win $15, do I expect to win $15?

e1gOP3y ago

If you actually place the bet, you believe the $15 payout is not only “possible” but even “more likely” that other bets available to you. If we define “expect” as 50%+ odds then no, if we define it as “I can see how this could happen” then yes.

A $20M Series A requires those investors to believe the startup can get to $1B for the math to work out for a typical fund.

rcoveson3y ago

> If we define “expect” as 50%+ odds then no, if we define it as “I can see how this could happen” then yes.

Nobody has ever defined or proposed defining "expect" as "I can see how this could happen" until just now. Not only does "expect" imply 50%+ odds, it implies something like 90%+ odds. It implies that you would be surprised if it didn't happen (because you were expecting it to happen).

sshine3y ago

Then the expected outcome would be $1.50, statistically.

zamalek3y ago

I'm not drawing equivalence between products here, but rather tempering trust in the opinions of investors. How much money was invested into FTX? How many renowned investors swore, and continue to swear, by that sham? Saying that "all these investors think it is good" is also just an appeal to authority.

The target market is developers, and developers are spooked out by this kind of thing. Seems risky.

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xkcd-sucks3y ago

rcoveson3y ago

If I bet $1 for a 1:10 chance to win $15, do I expect to win $15?

e1gOP3y ago

A $20M Series A requires those investors to believe the startup can get to $1B for the math to work out for a typical fund.

rcoveson3y ago

> If we define “expect” as 50%+ odds then no, if we define it as “I can see how this could happen” then yes.

sshine3y ago

Then the expected outcome would be $1.50, statistically.

zamalek3y ago

The target market is developers, and developers are spooked out by this kind of thing. Seems risky.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse