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0 pointsrcoveson3y ago0 comments

If I bet $1 for a 1:10 chance to win $15, do I expect to win $15?

0 comments

e1g3y ago

If you actually place the bet, you believe the $15 payout is not only “possible” but even “more likely” that other bets available to you. If we define “expect” as 50%+ odds then no, if we define it as “I can see how this could happen” then yes.

A $20M Series A requires those investors to believe the startup can get to $1B for the math to work out for a typical fund.

rcovesonOP3y ago

> If we define “expect” as 50%+ odds then no, if we define it as “I can see how this could happen” then yes.

Nobody has ever defined or proposed defining "expect" as "I can see how this could happen" until just now. Not only does "expect" imply 50%+ odds, it implies something like 90%+ odds. It implies that you would be surprised if it didn't happen (because you were expecting it to happen).

sshine3y ago

Then the expected outcome would be $1.50, statistically.

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