Putin has openly said he despises what the west did to Gaddafi and believes thats what they want for him. He not only fears it, but but said he fears for his civilization (Russia).
The west makes it pretty easy to be feareful - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-on-qaddafi-we-came-we-s...
Putin asked what right the west had to assassinate Gaddafi without a trial and destroy all the countries infrastructure
https://www.the-sun.com/news/2268833/vladimir-putin-killed-g...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-libya-idUSTR...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/26/libya-us-briti...
The purposeful destruction of infrastructure is an inexcusable war crime.
But "the west" did not stick a sword up Gaddafi's butt -- that was his own people, enraged by the actions of a totalitarian.
"The West" did not wander into Libya and and lynch a so called world leader who only wants norms followed when said lynch mob has formed.
To kill in this manner is a crime, but it happens when so many laws and norms have been broken it's more akin to manslaughter, more akin to a concentration camp victim losing their temper, seizing a firearm, and executing their former captors.
(As they say in America: "Fuck around, find out.")
Sure, a nato air strike hit Gaddafi's vehicles and opposition was given the location to attack...
People on the ground definitely "finished the job", but it was the massive air campaign and provided intelligence, leadership and weaponry to opposition that ended up getting Gaddafi killed.
For the record, I'm not supporting anyone here. I'm pointing out the idea the Putin isn't scared of his people as much as NATO. Per his own words.
Putin is massively popular in Russia https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...
Doesn't mean the 15-20% who massively dislike him wouldn't hang him. It would just only happen if Nato or the west provided support to the opposition.
(You should have guarded the embassy better. RIP vilerat.)
Less than a week ago russians published those photos https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zcak...
I think the fuller explanation is that Putin got drunk on his own Kool-aid of successful propaganda ops against the West, and thought that would translate into battlefield success. Nobody thinks of themselves as a bad person, so the perspective of rulers is that people love them and want to be ruled by them. Hence why Russia started off by sending shock paratroopers to be "greeted as liberators" rather than an actual invasion force.
What I do know is the Russia-Ukraine war is a referendum on the post-WWII international order - whether those lines on a map mean something. And even despite the moral hazards from the outsized winners in that international order (eg the Iraq War), it's seeming that we're much better off with it than without it. And this applies a thousand times over if you're American or European.
https://nypost.com/2021/12/23/putin-demands-nato-not-expand-...
Ukraine was hostile to the Russian people, banning their language in schools and refusing to uphold neutrality. France tried to broker a deal before the war broke out (upholding the Minsk agreements).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-to-meet-macron-as-france-...
> Sure, but this fear of "ending up like Gaddafi" still doesn't doesn't make for a justification, or even an explanation, of why Putin thought it was a good idea to invade a neighboring country. Egging "The West" on made that worry much closer to becoming real. If Putin wanted to be left alone, he's done the exact wrong thing.
The west supported a coup in Ukraine, overthrowing the elected leadership of Ukraine.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/22/russias-putin-accus...
Russia then attempted to negotiate with the new Ukrainian government
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements
Ukraine openly ignored the agreement and has been seeking EU / US involvement. Immediately before Russia invaded there was a massive increase in shelling (noted by international observers as well). Which could easily lead one to believe Ukraine was about to start another push into Donbass
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-sharp-incre...
Just prior to Russia invading, Ukraine was openly discussing the attempt to obtain nuclear weapons
https://www.dailywire.com/news/president-zelensky-suggests-u...
Everything points to expansion of the west, which triggered Putin's fears.
I'm not saying he should have invaded, he effectively lost in the political influence game, so he switched to the kinetic realm. But in his mind he thinks NATO is out to destroy him and his civilization (his own words). It makes sense if you watch what the west has done to people like Gaddaffi, Serbia, or Iraq. I'm not supporting anything here, but am pointing out the mindset.
If you pull it into some other paradigm than the post-WWII international order, where Russia presumably has some inherent right of conquest, then sure, you can come up with justifications of why Russia "had" to act. But as I alluded to in my last comment, if you are an American or European taking that post-WWII order for granted, you are gravely mistaken.
I think Putin was actually extremely clear before February that Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. Oh wait, he lied.
