As comparison, look at Amazon's smart speakers. $10 billion spent, lots of hype, part of the zeitgeist enough that SNL is doing jokes about it [1]. End of the day it's a "colossal failure": https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-co...
That's their bet, anyway, and we can speculate whether it will come to pass or not.
I'm inclined to think that the tech will eventually become mainstream, when headsets are as comfortable to wear as glasses. It's a prime opportunity for Apple to jump in near the tipping point, and claim to be the innovator, once again. It would be the mainstream push the industry needs, at least.
I'm less confident that Meta's verse will succeed, though. They've shown to be incapable of delivering an appealing product people want to spend hours in. And the Meta brand is tarnished beyond repair, no matter how many rebrandings they go through.
They want "Ready Player One", warts and all. Big Tech wants all the rough edges filed off, and for there to be little user control.
This is why VRChat is so amazing and AltspaceVR is dull and uninteresting.
Curated experiences with moderation and controls to prevent copyright infringement don't have broad appeal. A few of these events sound mildly cool:
https://account.altvr.com/events/all
But something like VRChat always has something weird and interesting going on. Like, maybe I find a virtual theater where a bad sci-fi movie is playing and I sit down next to a group of Kermit the Frog / Booby Anime girl avatars who are trash talking the movie ala MST3K. Every day of the week you get this!
How often would you say you use VRChat? I'm especially interested in things that people use in the same way they'd use Facebook or Twitter: multiple times per week and as a default activity when they're bored.
> that market will only grow
I too have read science fiction, so I get the theory. You know what else is in science fiction? 3D movies and 3D TV. But we've had 3 waves of 3D films (1950s, 1980s, 2000s) and it turns out nobody cares. And 3D TV fared even worse. And let's not forget the 1990 wave of actual VR, which also cratered. So the question is: will facehugger VR go the way of other stereoscopic 3D entertainment?
I think it's an open question, but my point is that it's very plausible that VR and the Metaverse will, like the jetpack, remain in the realm of sci-fi long after you and I are in the ground. And as far as I can tell, nobody is releasing data that shows it on a different arc. The Brewster Stereoscope sold a lot of units too, as did the Viewmaster. But ultimately people seem fine inferring 3D from 2D images without stereoscopic effects to help them along.
3D movies are still around, though sadly "real" 3D is pretty rare (remove the "Filmed in 2D" from the list, and of course the Digital 3D animations have different constraints : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_3D_films_(2005%E2%80%9....
But it's kind of weird that you would say this, with 3D now being an option in cinemas everywhere now (if not in homes any more, though my own TV is still compatible), especially with Avatar 2 that just released ?
https://news.yahoo.com/james-cameron-avatar-way-of-water-3d-...
If we consider transhumanism as something that's likely to happen, then XR can be viewed as a stepping stone towards that goal. In that sense, it could eventually become as ubiquitous as smartphones are today.
AI, and VR tech don't pay out right now. But AI is rapidly developing and Meta is one of the leaders in AI research. We could easily see chatbots, Alex like things, or even manufacturing and disability assistance. Or robots and image classification. Skies the limit. The thing is with this tech, the killer product doesn't even exist yet, and probably isn't even a thought in someones mind.
The goal is to make it so when the killer product does arrive, all the R&D they've invested is able to allow them to become to dominate leader. The same also applies to VR tech and the interfaces for VR. It's not a consumer focused field, but their R&D is worth millions, and when it comes time for the killer product, they'll have it, or be able to smother the one who does.
And this honestly makes sense for a company like Facebook. Their golden goose is dying. Facebook won't churn out money. All the legislation against them is killer, and they know it's a market propped up by easy VC money where almost no social media company makes money. So why not invest the all their billions into future tech we'll see likely playout in 5-10 years, where they will then be able to completely pivot to that product. It's the long game.
Killer products for particular hyped tech visions frequently don't arrive, at least in the necessary window for a given wave of investment. We don't have jetpacks. There were people who invested in flying cars throughout the 20th century; Are they now "become to dominate leader"? Or look at Motorola's Iridium. Zepplins, wireless power transmission, vacations to the moon. All commonplace in sci-fi, and all things people have invested in. The killer product never arrived.
Facebook is doing this because Mark Zuckerberg wants to remain rich and relevant. But just because his ego can't conceive of his company becoming irrelevant doesn't mean we have to play along.
