Not so much. A big mass of water act as a temperature buffer and air pumps and filters are mixing the water column all the time. It takes several hours to cool.
The event does not seemed truly random to me. If it was, the probability of breaking in the 90% of the time when there was people around would be much higher than breaking in the 10% small time interval without people. Extreme luck is rare. Looking for an external trigger seems appropriate
But the only surface really accessible to people was the escalator, and now we know that it didn't broke. The outer surface is mounted over the escalator door, can't be scratched purposely without taking a lot of troubles. Can't be shoot without leaving evident marks of a crime
If we assume that the thermostat didn't broke and that material fatigue is not an optimum explanation (it was checked and maintained in 2020), then temperature differences seem a good candidate. It broke in winter, in the hour where day/night differences should be maximum. The outer temperatures that night were -10C if I'm not wrong.
