The problem with your analysis is you are taking that budget they show and assuming it is correct and that they have not lied, and when investigating fraud a necessary component of any fraud is lying about what you've done. Forensic accountants catch people because certain practices are followed, such as double entry-accounting and regular cash flow statements.
What they have posted, is based on their say so with no supporting documentation and that document has been updated a few times, but not regularly as one would expect happens during a normal course of charity business (quarterly or annually). I've never heard of a legitimate charity that doesn't regularly have an independent auditor look over their books every few years and certify there are no inconsistencies (at a bare minimum).
All I was saying is, there are a lot of questions, and no solid information to draw any conclusions from.
