I haven't seen that prediction. What I have seen is "AGI is 2 years out", and I have been seeing that for 4 years.
Much like the self-driving cars that were (according to the experts in the industry) 5 years out since 2012, and still not here in 2023.
Maybe if the experts in the industry were more vocal about how far off they are, you wouldn't be reading comments like mine.
> If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier.
if they had been saying, since 2012, that it's five years away, I won't be the only one laughing at them.
When it comes to AI, though, the world is a lot more forgiving, and collectively more forgetful of the predictions.
