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0 pointsclaytonjy3y ago0 comments

What is the storm they're worried about, if not mass layoffs concentrated within an industry?

Inflation is almost down to normal, employment is still high and will remain so as long as the construction sector avoids layoffs due to the coming cash infusion from federal spending bills.

Seems to me the only storm coming is the one created by these same execs, though I understand each of them is incentivized to follow the crowd.

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scyzoryk_xyz3y ago

I’m not one of those elites. So I would not know what the real forecast is.

I’m just stating a hypothesis on the perspective of, say such CEO’s. To them it’s not pack behavior based on hearsay.

spaceman_20203y ago

> Inflation is almost down to normal

Huh? Normal inflation in the US is 2% - that's the Fed's target.

Last month, inflation was 6.5%.

Being 250% above target is not "normal".

claytonjyOP3y ago

That's an unweighted trailing average where the bulk of the increase came from earlier months.

Instantaneous inflation in December 2022 annualizes to 2%.

spaceman_20203y ago

"The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in December, following a 0.2-percent increase in November. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.8 percent over the month."

Food inflation increased over November. Shelter index increased at an annualized rate of nearly 10%.

Sometimes, you have to dig deeper than the headline.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

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0 pointsclaytonjy3y ago0 comments

What is the storm they're worried about, if not mass layoffs concentrated within an industry?

Inflation is almost down to normal, employment is still high and will remain so as long as the construction sector avoids layoffs due to the coming cash infusion from federal spending bills.

Seems to me the only storm coming is the one created by these same execs, though I understand each of them is incentivized to follow the crowd.

0 comments

scyzoryk_xyz3y ago

I’m not one of those elites. So I would not know what the real forecast is.

I’m just stating a hypothesis on the perspective of, say such CEO’s. To them it’s not pack behavior based on hearsay.

spaceman_20203y ago

> Inflation is almost down to normal

Huh? Normal inflation in the US is 2% - that's the Fed's target.

Last month, inflation was 6.5%.

Being 250% above target is not "normal".

claytonjyOP3y ago

That's an unweighted trailing average where the bulk of the increase came from earlier months.

Instantaneous inflation in December 2022 annualizes to 2%.

spaceman_20203y ago

"The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in December, following a 0.2-percent increase in November. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.8 percent over the month."

Food inflation increased over November. Shelter index increased at an annualized rate of nearly 10%.

Sometimes, you have to dig deeper than the headline.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse