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0 pointssnozolli3y ago0 comments

Layoffs are rational and are common in downward cycles.

What downward cycle?

All I'm hearing is panic and hand-wringing about the economy, but I don't see what the problem is.

We had a "recession" in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. GDP dropped from 20,006 to a low of 19,895, then it went right back to its previous growth path.

Inflation is high, but it's dropping. It maxed out at 9.1% in June of 2022. Now it's down to 6.5% and expected to drop in the upcoming update (Feb 14).

We weathered a global pandemic, subsequent supply chain issues, and a war on the other side of the world that disrupted the energy economy. We're doing great, but people are fretting like it's 2008.

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EMM_3863y ago

These companies are using forward-looking metrics to make these types of decisions, it really isn't follow-the-leader.

I don't have access to the data, but it's quite possible with interest rates rising, high inflation, and tightening monetary policy that they are seeing slowing growth/sales. Companies want to get out ahead of that, especially with the massive (and frankly absurd) hiring that these companies did over the last 2 years.

I'm not buying that Microsoft laid of people because Google laid off people, and Spotify laid off people because Microsoft laid off people. Somewhat unfortunately, these public companies are expected to show constant revenue growth, and they will "trim the fat" at a moments notice.

snozolliOP3y ago

These companies are using forward-looking metrics to make these types of decisions

Such as? This seems super hand-wavy.

The pandemic already happened. Inflation peaked last summer, after the Fed responded. The supply chain crunch is resolved or resolving.

They had the bad news months or years ago. What are these forward-looking metrics that are worse than what we already experienced in the last few years, and why isn't the entire market panicking over them?

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