Given the timing and the magnitude the first estimates of casualties seem surprisingly low, I really hope that they are right but there are some major cities right in the middle of this. Ugh.
On the flip side, I’ve often found that ‘missing person’ reports can overcount the number of casualties. Again, when infrastructure is destroyed or when there’s a locally-devastating disaster it’s hard to get an actual account of who was actually in the area when disaster struck.
I can't imagine < 1000's of dead.
The situation is apparently quite grim with the broad scale of devastation. I hope technology can help guide and focus resources and rescuers as quickly as possible.
What an awful event.
What kind of infrastructure is in place that would survive to allow network connectivity for people to access socials to ask for help?
Infrastructure is fine.
At least enough of it is. I had no trouble calling people in the area minutes after it happened.
This one. On the previous large quake in the country, the networks collapsed and there was a huge public uproar because the network operators were claiming disaster readiness in their ads, even showing drone swarms flying to the disaster area to provide network services.
Maybe they actually hardened their networks but in general, the internet connectivity seems more resilient as the regular phone calling was restored much later than the internet connectivity last time.
This time there are many tweets and instagram stories of people posting text, selfies and videos from under the rubble, together with their address, their condition and the number of people in the house.
Here are a few examples:
https://twitter.com/lilalayd/status/1622604576019849216
https://twitter.com/Erhan_Dogan23/status/1622477226754064389
Lucky or good?
A real prediction should include exact time period, magnitude, and geographic area. And every prediction made must be documented. This lets you do two things: first it lets you clearly decide which predictions came true. Second, we can look at historic probabilities for the predicted quake and evaluate the chances of blind guessing being correct for that exact set of predictions.
In this particular instance, if you look at the predictions made on his twitter stream you'll find that he's clearly a quack who predicts stuff constantly. Not super surprising he got one right. EDIT: Also... surprise! There was a foreshock a couple of hours before he made the prediction.
Quacks like a duck.
> EDIT: Also... surprise! There was a foreshock a couple of hours before he made the prediction.
He is probably more knowledgeable than the average person and has access to latest data on earthquakes.
The way to do this is to make the same prediction every day, and then delete the tweet when the prediction ends up not coming true. That way, when someone goes and looks at your profile, you'll have a 100% track record. (Or probably better, just a prediction mixed in with random pictures from your dog walks.)
It's the 10 %, 20 %, 50 % confidence level predictions you have to be a bit more sparing with!
Also if you click through to to the organization he works for (not linking; no google juice for them), they're clearly quacks: they seem to believe that geometric shapes made by various planets in the solar system can be used to predict earthquakes. Note that they aren't even talking about gravitational effects (which are near zero, anyway), just the specific shapes. Complete nonsense.
I would bet that he got extremely lucky with his timing.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7954673/
There are also studies suggesting that lunar cycles causes behaviour changes in humans, which could explain that. This doesn't seem that unreasonable given that the lunar cycle has been shown to affect the behaviour of animals and insects:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/do-full-moons-an...
I think this is another case of a blind squirrel finding a nut. It's bound to happen once in a while.
He's fishing for attention from the general public.
Register every day post a tweet about an earthquake tomorrow. If you're wrong, delete it. When you're right, you seem prophetic.
Then go to videos tab.
It's completely and utterly headwrecking! Every time one happens you don't know whether it's going to build into a big one.
My heart goes out to them.
Why would Russian invade Ukraine for gas and oil, when all the gas and oil is already in Ukraine.
My spellchecker needs to be updated because it doesn’t want me writing “Turkiye.”
Some people in the government renamed the english spelling of my city into an unreadable alphabet soup. Not only they strongly insist the whole world to spell it this way, they also deem everyone who doesn't like it a traitor.
So, spelling matters. A lot. Unfortunately.
It's silly to think things don't change and rude to call people names they don't want to be called
The good thing is that Türkiye is pronounced almost like Turkey, so you're saying it almost right ;)
From https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html: "Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents."
[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_MLd6EsvwM [video][33 mins]
