I don't think you've represented the camps fairly (actually, I don't think there are two camps). Most people (here) are probably not arguing that AGI is impossible, but that current AI is not generally intelligent. The John Carmack quote is exactly in line with this. He says "ride those to [AGI]," meaning they are not AGI. The idea that genuine intelligence and self-awareness could emerge from increasingly powerful statistical models is in no way the kind of counter-cultural idea you seem to be presenting it as. I think almost all of us believe that.

But ChatGPT is not it.