Yes, the same flight plans, routes and timetables, were re-used, so when spotters saw the aircraft take off they had a very good idea of where it would come from.

The shoot down also involved the SAM radar operator violating his own SOP by leaving his radar on longer than they normally do, and firing at a non-PID contact, because they _knew_ the aircraft was going to be there.

Complacency kills.

Since it was supposedly "invisible", there was a lot of joking that it was hit by accident saying: "sorry, we didn't see it".

I believe so, but also because they decided to still fly missions on a day where the Prowler EW platform was inoperable. Due to the extreme predictability of the route, along with no countermeasures, and intelligence on the matter, they were able to burn through.

This is the article I read about this some time ago; good detail here! They quote complacency as a factor, arrogance would be another good word - in grossly underestimating the sheer determination on the other side.

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/an-in-depth-analysis-of-how-...

IIRC it involved sacrificing one AA tank and using another to kill the plane.