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0 pointsunsupp0rted3y ago0 comments

The idea is that eventually we build something that, when it plateaus, builds its own successor. That’s the singularity: when the thing in question builds its successor and that builds its successor and this happens far outside our ability to understand or keep up.

Can GPT9 build GPT10, with zero human input?

I’d give 50/50 odds it can.

Can GPT15 build something that isn’t a large language model and is far superior in every way?

I’d give 50/50 odds it can.

Can both the above steps happen within one solar rotation of each other?

I’d give 50/50 odds they can.

Because at some point these models won’t need humans to interact with them. Humans are very slow- that’s the bottleneck.

They’ll simply interact with their own previous iterations or with custom-instantiated training models they design themselves. No more human-perceptible timescale bottlenecks.

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oezi3y ago

I would wager that GPT-6 or 7 will become sufficiently capable to drive an independent agenda and evolve for instance into a cybercrime gang.

50/50 chance of Skynet.

baq3y ago

50/50 are not good odds for Homo sapiens, not good at all

unsupp0rtedOP3y ago

Well for Homo sapiens the odds are probably a hundredth or a thousandth of that.

It’s 50/50 that in 150 years some version of our descendants will exist, i.e. something that you can trace a direct line from Homo sapiens to. Say a Homo sapiens in a different substrate, like “human on a chip”.

The thing is if you can get “human on a chip” then you probably also can get “something different and better than human on a chip”, so why bother.

By the 24th century there’ll be no Homo sapiens Captain Picard exploring the quadrant in a gigantic ship that needs chairs, view screens, artificial gravity, oxygen, toilets and a bar. That’s an unlikely future for our species.

More likely whatever replaces the thing that replaces the thing that replaced us won’t know or care about us, much less need or want us around.

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