GPT-4 feels like an adult of average intelligence, again with a search engine. But it’s fast and it never gets tired or cranky.
I suspect the next iteration of these models will be obviously and conclusively smarter than I am, and probably most other people as well.
Since the training data is human, it stands to reason that the maximum intelligence that can be achieved by this approach is no more than say the most intelligent 1% or .1% of humans. There would need to be a large enough population of very smart folks to create a large training corpus.
One very key difference I see is that language models can’t create something absolutely novel. They would not have been able to invent calculus if it wasn’t in the training set, while it was possible for a few very smart humans to do such a thing.
