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0 pointsJumpCrisscross3y ago0 comments

We can estimate the delta as of filing dates. We don’t know what the delta is.

That doesn’t matter, because they’re federally backed. But it’s a crucial difference to appreciate less than one week after a run.

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s1artibartfast3y ago

Like I said above, you won't have a crystal clear number but you have some brackets on the fair market value. The assets under management belong to the account holders so you can zero them out. You can zero out the shareholder value which is zero. This mainly leaves there other cash assets and physical assets.

I'm not willing to do it to win a hn debate, but there's enough public information to estimate the size of their hole within a billion or two.

Claims that they were evasive or hiding things in their financial reportings are off base. Claims that it would be impossible to get an idea of their Financial losses are also off base.

JumpCrisscrossOP3y ago

> they were evasive or hiding things in their financial reportings are off base

Nobody (in this thread) claimed this? And I disagree with the “within a billion or two,” though do think within a few tens of billions is accurate. The problem isn’t the specificity of the filing per se but the delay; that isn’t the balance sheet anymore.

s1artibartfast3y ago

>And I disagree with the “within a billion or two,” though do think within a few tens of billions is accurate.

It is clear from the statement that we are almost entirely talking about 30 year MBS purchased in 2021.

3% 30yr MBS were about $105 throughout 2021. These were about $89.2 at the end of 2022 (10-k filing), and about $89.4 today.

You might say, "but they may have put it 30yr MBS!". The thing is, you can validate this by the ammount they lost from 2021 to 2022. It also doesnt make much of a difference if they bought slightly different rate MBS at 2.5% or 3.5%, as they track pretty closely. Lastly, MBS value havent changed much since the time of the 10-k filing.

To get "a few tens of billions" difference, they would have had to tripple their losses on MBS in a time when MBS value has been stable.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs/umbs/30/30

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s1artibartfast3y ago

I'm not willing to do it to win a hn debate, but there's enough public information to estimate the size of their hole within a billion or two.

Claims that they were evasive or hiding things in their financial reportings are off base. Claims that it would be impossible to get an idea of their Financial losses are also off base.

JumpCrisscrossOP3y ago

> they were evasive or hiding things in their financial reportings are off base

s1artibartfast3y ago

>And I disagree with the “within a billion or two,” though do think within a few tens of billions is accurate.

It is clear from the statement that we are almost entirely talking about 30 year MBS purchased in 2021.

3% 30yr MBS were about $105 throughout 2021. These were about $89.2 at the end of 2022 (10-k filing), and about $89.4 today.

To get "a few tens of billions" difference, they would have had to tripple their losses on MBS in a time when MBS value has been stable.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs/umbs/30/30

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse