Who? Crying wolf makes sense to discredit an individual but not a whole argument. Almost everything is being predicted by someone at any given time. If your criteria for predictions is “no one can have made a similar prediction and been wrong in the past”, then you’ll disbelieve all predictions.

And seriously, how many people were actually saying “WolframAlpha will destroy a huge amount of programming jobs”?

Except Watson and Alpha weren’t useful out of the box to everyone. They weren’t the fastest growing app of all time and couldn’t even remotely play that way. ChatGPT isn’t hype because it is so useful — it’s already on the “Plateau of Productivity”.

But it looks like an exponentially steep climb from here. indefinitely

I think everywhere except HN the expectations on Watson’s and Wolfram’s second seasons where even more inflated

Demonstrably untrue, it’s taken up semi-residence in everything from oped pages to boardrooms since the New Year. Welcome to the mid singularity, my friend.