Like humans, I predict AIs will have to get jobs rather than have time to take over the world.
Still an existence proof though.
> Like humans, I predict AIs will have to get jobs rather than have time to take over the world.
Only taking over job market is still taking over.
Living costs of 175 kWh/year is one heck of a competitive advantage over food, and clothing, and definitely rent.
That can't happen:
- getting a job creates more jobs, it doesn't reduce or replace them, because it grows the economy.
- more importantly, jobs are based on comparative advantage and so an AI being better at your job would not actually cause it to take your job from you. Basically, it has better things to do.
A 20 watt AI, if we could figure out how to build it, can absolutely do that.
I hear there are diminishing economic activities for low IQ humans, which implies some parts of the market are already saturated: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35265966
So I don't think that's going to help.
Second, "having better things to do" assumes the AI only come in one size, which they already don't.
If AI can be high IQ human level at 20 watts (IDK brain upload or something but it doesn't matter), then we can also do cheaper smaller models like a 1 watt dog-mind (I'm guessing) for guard duty or a dung beetle brain for trash disposal (although that needs hardware which is much more power hungry).
Third, that power requirement, at $0.05/kWh, gets a year of AI for the cost of just over 4 days of the UN abject poverty threshold. Just shy of 90:1 ratio for even the poorest humans is going to at the very least be highly disruptive even if it did only come in "genius" variety. Even if you limit this hypothetical to existing electrical capacity, 20 watts corresponds to 12 genius level AI per human.
Finally, if this AI is anthropomorphic in personality not just power requirements and mental capacity, you have to consider both chauvinism and charity: we, as a species, frequently demonstrate economically suboptimal behaviours driven by each of kindness to strangers on the positive side and yet also racism/sexism/homophobia/sectarianism/etc. on the negative.
