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0 pointsgtop32y ago0 comments

The viral jump from animals to humans is a common mechanism in many of the worst pandemics, with covid-19 and hiv being prime recent examples. There's some evidence "the spanish flu" of 1918 came from swine.

If I were working on the problem "how can we reduce the frequency new very dangerous viruses are introduced" I would pay attention to this aspect.

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bmitc2y ago

The solution to this problem is the same as nearly every other problem humans create: stop destroying ecosystems and animal habitats, stop expansion, reduce meat eating, etc. These things increase the transmission of zoonotic diseases. There was a really good article in 2020 that I can now not find where an expert discussed how these things are not new, COVID was not a surprise, and that these transmissions will do nothing but increase in frequency if we don't systematically tackle these problems.

prottog2y ago

> The viral jump from animals to humans

I thought the most likely origin of Covid-19 is a lab leak (at least according to the latest from the DOE and the FBI), likely from gain-of-function research gone wrong?

acdha2y ago

No – even that DOE report gave it a low probability ranking. It’s perfect for conspiracy mongers because you can’t completely rule out the possibility but the evidence has pretty consistently pointed at a non-lab jump, possibly in the wet market, and that’s not surprising since it’s a common scenario scientists have been warning about for decades.

See for example this recent analysis:

https://zenodo.org/record/7754299

prottog2y ago

> even that DOE report gave it a low probability ranking

Well, specifically, they assessed with "low confidence" that the "most likely" source was a lab leak. Meaning they think the wet market theory is less likely, though also with low confidence.

I do note in the analysis you linked that the authors admit to unusual circumstances around the data they used, and that the source of the data is the Chinese CDC. Given the obvious incentive on the part of the Chinese government to disclaim a lab leak, I'm hesitant to take this as conclusive evidence.

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bmitc2y ago

prottog2y ago

> The viral jump from animals to humans

I thought the most likely origin of Covid-19 is a lab leak (at least according to the latest from the DOE and the FBI), likely from gain-of-function research gone wrong?

acdha2y ago

See for example this recent analysis:

https://zenodo.org/record/7754299

prottog2y ago

> even that DOE report gave it a low probability ranking

Well, specifically, they assessed with "low confidence" that the "most likely" source was a lab leak. Meaning they think the wet market theory is less likely, though also with low confidence.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse