This is on the front page because it's historically significant and intellectually interesting; so please comment if you have something to say that enhances those aspects. I know it's hard to detach from the passions of the moment, but that's kind of necessary for curious conversation*, so it's good practice.
* https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor....
The charges relate to hush money payments to Stormy Daniels, but hush money is not a crime. It's also not a crime to have an affair with Stormy Daniels. So the most salacious parts of the story are not what the crime is.
My understanding is that the crime is around how the money was delivered. I'm having trouble finding a good description, but CNN has this to say:
> Hush money payments aren't illegal. Prosecutors are weighing whether to charge Trump with falsifying the business records of the Trump Organization for how they reflected the reimbursement of the payment to Michael Cohen. Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York.
> Prosecutors are also weighing whether to charge Trump with falsifying business records in the first degree for allegedly falsifying a record with the intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal another crime, which in this case could be a violation of campaign finance laws. That is a Class E felony, with a sentence minimum of one year and as much as four years.
I'm not a lawyer and it's hard to parse the above, but it sounds very technical. It sounds like they have to prove two separate crimes, and connect them with intention. Intent of course is always hard to prove in court.
Overall this seems like a weak case to me.
Interesting items:
- This is from the NY State courts so it is NY State laws in play (likely campaign finance laws), not Federal. If it were Federal it would be prosecuted by Federal attorney's in a Federal court.
- A Grand Jury (for those that don't know) is composed of citizens, about 16-20 or something, that proceed like a court case understanding laws and evidence presented, including witness interviews, and the result here is that they chose to indict. This means that 12 (or more) citizens decided there was enough evidence that specific laws might have been broken to bring charges against him.
- I believe (common sense here) that campaign finance funds have to be kept separate from personal or business funds, as in different accounts. Depending on the laws in various states the laws may require disclosure forms of funds into/out of the accounts, etc.
Its likely that this is technical and could be traceable - if the funds for hush money came from a campaign finance account through his attorney and noted as such its probably not a case that is worth trying. That doesn't appear to be illegal, its a (morally questionable) campaign line item. If the source of the funds was from a personal/business account then that could violate campaign finance laws by using the wrong account. This kinda sounds like how they got Al Capone on tax evasion and not the myriad of other potential crimes. I'm not comparing the people, just my layman knowledge of the cases.
Michael Cohen pled guilty and was sentenced to three years for the campaign finance law, and he's been very vocal about Trump's knowledge and involvement. So proving intent doesn't seem impossible. And, by definition, falsifying business records comes with a record of false information.
Also, from everything I've read, well defended people are remarkably hard to convict. This is as it should be, as it may let some people go scot free, but protects the rest of us.
Convicting Trump will be hard. It might fail. Does this mean that charges should not be brought in the first place? That's a question I don't know how to answer, for any "white collar" or prominent defendant.
This will be unsealed when Trump is processed and arraigned. I believe this is set for Tuesday. Note that processing includes the mug shot, fingerprinting and DNA.
My understanding is the payoff was upgraded to a felony because it had to be. If it were a misdemeanour it would be beyond the statute of limitations. So this isn't even a case where the prosecutor has "insurance" with a lesser charge. A felony seems to require actual intent, as in knowing this would impact the election. Whose to say it wasn't done to protect his marriage, for example? Of course, there may be evidence to support this.
But I have trouble believing the Manhattan DA would indict just on this (alleged) offence. There has to be more to this. Hopefully we'll learn a lot more next week.
The Economist, no fan of Trump, made much the same point [1], archived at [2]
> Prosecuting Mr Trump for the campaign-finance violation relies on a convoluted argument. In 2016 Michael Cohen, the president’s personal lawyer (who later went to prison himself), paid $130,000 to Ms Daniels out of his own pocket. Mr Trump allegedly reimbursed Mr Cohen with payments disguised as routine legal expenses. Falsifying business records can be a misdemeanour under New York law. The felony indictment would indicate that prosecutors are going to argue that the minor crime facilitated a more serious one: failing to declare the payment, which was made a few weeks before the election, as a de facto campaign expense.
> The payment probably did benefit the campaign and it was indeed undeclared. Mr Cohen, the lawyer, pleaded guilty to breaking campaign-finance law. But legal theory for prosecuting Mr Trump in Manhattan is untested. The campaign-finance rules that he may have broken are federal. The accounting rule is a state one. Linking the two in this way is unusual, and a judge may decide it is unwarranted.
And today it has a leader [3], archived at [4] which goes into greater detail, and concludes
> If Mr Trump is to be prosecuted, it should be for something that cannot be dismissed as a technicality, and where the law is clearer. The Manhattan DA’s case looks like a mistake.
[1] https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/the-cases... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20230329221711/https://www.econo... [3] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/30/prosecuting-don... [4] https://web.archive.org/web/20230331115631/https://www.econo...
In order for it to be a felony, you need to connect the two together. Otherwise it's a misdemeanour.
In terms of it being a "weak case", I would just say let's wait to see what the prosecutors' argument is - this will be released when the indictment is unsealed on Thursday. It's a document-heavy case. There is a witness who carried out the crime (Michael Cohen), and other witnesses as well. I would also posit that the prosecutors, and a grand jury (who unanimously voted to indict) would not take the unprecedented step to charge a former President unless they thought there was a strong case.
So, let's just wait and see.
There is speculation that many of the charges are related to falsifying business records to cover up the payment, which would explain the number of charges involved. If true, then this case has parallels with what happened with Bill Clinton in the Monica Lewinski case: it wasn't the affair that was criminal act, it was the coverup after the fact.
Based on one article that quoted an anonymous source from one of Trump's advisors or confidants, said that they are working toward an arraignment on Tuesday. But it's a high profile case with exceptional circumstances--namely the involvement of the Secret Service--so we should probably take that date with a grain of salt.
Said another commenter who, like everyone else outside of the DA's office, has literally no data on what is in the now-reported to be 34 indictments.
>> hard to parse the above, but it sounds very technical So, "I don't know what I'm talking about, generally don't like it, so I'll just call it weak.", is itself a very weak statement.
It is extremely unlikely that this reluctant prosecutor would go to the mat with a weak case around one event such as a payoff to one woman, even if it was done in a way to violate tax and campaign finance laws.
We know no details, but there are clues in the public domain. The same DA office already convicted the Trump Organization on 17 counts and got the maximum fines [0]. There were witnisses called before the Grand Jury who would have spoken to much more than a single payoff scheme. There were multiple women, and David Pecker, former publisher of the National Enquirer, who was known to have paid for and killed multiple scandalous stories on Trump's behalf, and Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, who plead guilty in a 15-year Trump Org Tax Scheme.
Based on this, it is a reasonable inference to expect charges of a years-long conspiracy to commit tax, business, and campaign fraud.
I suppose if you consider white-collar crime "technical" and therefore weak, any such indictments would be weak.
But in terms of the actual strength of the case, based both on that DA's record of convictions, and the historic profile of this case (and the career-terminating consequences of losing it), they would not be bringing charges unless they thought they were extremely strong and they were extremely confident of winning.
[0]https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-organization-sentenced...
However:
1 iirc Grand Jury's are the ones that get to do everything behind closed doors. So we wouldnt know if they had a smoking gun until after trial possibly.
2 The US has a history of pursuing people it doesn't like through financial crimes. Rico etc.
I think its easy to see this in the lens of "oh its another attack on trump that will go away again" and if you experience your entire life through the highs and lows of the media cycle thats quite possibly going to be the case. But I think each prong of attack opens up a little more of Trumps weakness and eventually, either through weight of legal cost or dumb luck they will find something to hang him with.
That's because the charges haven't been announced yet. The facts that we know are that a grand jury has voted to indict Donald Trump and has delivered a True Bill to the prosecutors.
The indictment is at this moment sealed. It should be unsealed shortly (speculation was a timeline of tonight/tomorrow, but I could also see it being early next week).
So, it's not known publicly what the specific charges are. Which is why people haven't described them in this thread. They're not yet known.
> most stories are vague.
This is partly because there's not a lot of information, but it's also because the news media needs to pump out an endless amount of content around this story (since it's both historic, and they have a profit incentive to keep people reading/watching), but there's really only a few paragraphs* of information that's currently available or relevant.
> It sounds like they have to prove two separate crimes, and connect them with intention. Intent of course is always hard to prove in court.
The speculated charges (which, again, are speculation, not the known public charges) involve a crime which is, on its own, a misdemeanor. The crime becomes a felony if it was committed with intent to commit another crime.
So, if (and again, this is a big if, since it's not the actual charges, just speculation) the prosecutors are going down that road, they don't actually have to prove two crimes. They have to prove the first crime and intent to commit another crime. They don't actually have to prove the facts of the second crime.
> Intent of course is always hard to prove in court.
Intent is hard to prove, but it's also something that gets proved in court cases frequently. For example, murder is (in almost all states) an intent crime. Prosecutors are still able to charge and convict on murder. So, while an intent element makes a case harder to make, it doesn't by default make it impossible.
For a crime similar to the being speculated about, consider Breaking and Entering. In many states a B&E is only a crime if it's done with the intent to commit another crime (in Washington state, for example, this is "Residential burglary" RCW 9A.52.025†). But if someone is caught breaking into a property at night with a ski mask and a burlap sack, prosecutors won't find it a challenge to demonstrate the requisite intent.
> Overall this seems like a weak case to me.
I think it's really too early to say at this point. I'd at least wait until the indictment is unsealed and released publicly so we can know the actual charges. Once we know the charges, and a summary of the available evidence, we'd be in a much better position to make a claim about the quality of the case.
* There's really only a single sentence of _news_ to report, but there's probably a decent amount of explaining the process that can reasonably happen, since most people aren't familiar with the details of the process.
† https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=9a.52&full=true...
If they only have a weak case, it will be easy to pass it as an attempt to prevent him from running 2024, so it will only serve to further polarize the country
His attorney already went to jail over this and if he wasn't president, he'd have been charged years ago.
I understand even his loyal voter base are now sometimes embarrassed by his actions. For example, him storing confidential papers at Mar-a-Lago after his presidency finished.
That is different from when he was first elected as President. At that time he couldn't do anything wrong. I am sure the right wing press will spin this as a witch hunt, but will it fly with the voters on the ground?
Does anyone have more insight in this?
The entire impossibility of prosecuting Trump is weird to me. There's a host of crimes to pick from, from using/withholding already approved support for Ukraine to bribe/blackmail Zelensky for personal gain (dirt on a political opponent), to pressuring people to violate election laws, to instigating the January 6 attack on the Capitol, to keeping hundreds of highly classified documents in his basement and lying about it when he's requested to return them.
Lots of people have gone to prison much quicker for a fraction of this. So why is it so hard to prosecute a president or former president? It really feels like he is above the law, and lots of people want presidents to be above the law, apparently.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/30/politics/clinton-dnc-steele-d...
[0] https://www.justsecurity.org/85745/survey-of-prosecutions-fo...
It’s funny how so many people think less of this crime because the misappropriated campaign funds where used for something so redicules, compared to if it had been just plainly stolen or used to buy a luxury car or something like that.
Obama: Charged with $375,000 for breaking campaign finance law.
Regardless of how you vote, this is a political stunt and witch hunt. Next Biden will be indicted when he leaves office, then the next opponent, and so on…
This is an extremely dangerous precedence that will do nothing but fuel both sides.
Nothing will happen to him just more lame reality TV type drama that gets ratings.
I've recently served on a jury for a criminal trial, so I've learned some things about the process that courtroom dramas did not teach me.
One: stacked charges (in this case, 30+) can indicate repeat offenses of the same crime / crimes on separate occasions (usually denoted as separate dates). I do not think this is simply a matter of a single hush money payout (or two, as has been reported in the news). I would not be surprised if there are 10 or more distinct events in play. edit: Note that the jury can render separate verdicts for each charge if desired.
Two: the grand jury merely decides whether there's enough evidence to bring this to trial. The standard of evidence for a grand jury is much lower than the actual trial jury.
Three: this is more theoretical because I'd be surprised if this happens, but the defendant in any criminal proceeding is more than entitled to neither testify on his own behalf, and the defense is not required to call any witnesses to the stand, as the presumption is that Trump is innocent until proven guilty. The burden of proof lies with the prosecution.
Four: I'm going to paraphrase the judge in my case slightly, but "beyond an unreasonable doubt does not mean beyond any possible doubt. There is always going to be some shred of doubt. Beyond an unreasonable doubt means that you have a moral conviction that the defendant committed the alleged crimes."
> it sounds very technical
That's totally expected, as is the case for even the most mundane-seeming laws. The jury is not expected to have a legal background. The judge will instruct them regarding the points of the law (along with definitions of legal terms), and in particular provide criteria that must be met (sometimes with alternatives, e.g. direct vs constructive possession) in order to find the defendant guilty of a crime. https://nycourts.gov/judges/cji/2-PenalLaw/175/175.10.pdf is probably pretty similar to what the jury might expect to see.
As for intent being hard to prove: you are approximately never going to have direct evidence regarding intent. The prosecution can try to establish intent through circumstantial evidence from which the jury can make a reasonable inference. Again, paraphrasing the judge: if you see someone come into the courtroom with wet clothes and shaking water off an umbrella, you can infer that it was raining. Similarly, if the prosecution establishes that Trump took specific actions that could not be reasonably interpreted in a different way other than being made intentionally, or that there were too many of these unlikely occurrences for it to be coincidental, then the jury may use that to establish intent. Further, note that ignorance of the law is not a defense.
You can bet that the prosecution's case is going to center around providing evidence to directly prove those points, regardless of any narrative the lawyers on either side want to spin. At least in our case, we were instructed only to use evidence as presented in exhibits and per witness testimony. Any of the words of the lawyers (questioning, or even opening statements / closing arguments) were not allowed to be considered. The closing arguments are essentially suggestions re: how to view the evidence.
One last note: you cited that a class E felony in NY has a mandatory minimum of 1 year. Even if Trump is convicted of 30 class E felonies, those can be served concurrently, so theoretically the judge could hand down a sentence of 1 year prison time if he so desired. I think that's highly unlikely, but it is possible.
It's the justice system of New York state that's on trial, not Trump.
>> I've scrolled through the top ~10 or so comments
>> I'm not a lawyer and it's hard to parse the above.
>> Overall this seems like a weak comment to me.
He paid off Stormy Daniels to keep her from talking about their relationship. Paying her to stay silent is 100% legal, there is absolutely no issue with an NDA like that. The illegal part isn't the what, it's the how.
Political campaigning laws set a limited budget for how much money you can spend on campaigning, which is defined as "any payment made by any person for the purpose of influencing any election for Federal office". Daniels talking about her relationship with Trump is something that could have had a significant impact on Trump's presidential campaign, so paying her to stay quiet is considered a campaign expense. Paying your lawyer for legal advice/representation is not a campaign expense, though, so what happened was that Cohen himself paid Daniels (there's no law against that), and the campaign paid Cohen for "legal expenses" (which aren't considered campaign expenses).
The problem here is that, of course, this was just a way to make Cohen an intermediary for the process of the campaign paying Daniels. This is problem in two ways. First, it goes against the campaign spending limits, so goes against campaign laws. Second, it's a form of falsifying business records.
Here is an analogy I thought of. Say my firm's database gets ransomewared. If I pay the ransom directly, that may be a particular way of accounting. But say, I pay McCohen Computer Associates to fix the problem. Why do I not book it as a computer expense? I am not an accountant but am curious how this works.
Also, booking something in the wrong accounting category, doesn't seem like a very convincing charge. On the other hand, Tax and election violations are very serious.
The whole thing is... probably not great grounds on which to carry out the first criminal indictment of a former US president, but the state of US politics and media in 2023 is such that outside of Trump circles the issues will be largely ignored.
(In fact, you could argue that this defence is even stronger because he is Donald Trump. He has plenty of dedicated supporters who seem to stick with him regardless of his transgressions; accusations of infidelity might be less damaging to him politically than to other politicians!)
So, the prosecutors have to somehow convince a court what his intent really was, i.e. it's less about what he did and more about why he did it.
The interesting bit is that Hillary Clinton also violated campaign finance law in a similar way for funding the Steele dossier. She was fined $8000. People are really going to have a field day with this.
If this was actually Trump paying his own hush money via his lawyer, then it makes Michael Cohen a liar (when he said that he paid it out of his own pocket, thus admitting to violating campaign finance law), but Trump seems to not be implicated at all.
When I tried DuckDuckGo, only HN came up.
I was curious what redditors thought of your response and what context it was made, but search engines seem to fall down on finding a great deal of what's been hidden on the Internet these days.
isn't this a bit of a stretch? lots of things that could "make trump look bad" (TM) might have a political consequence, but does that make them all defacto campaign related? Aren't there plenty other (personal) reasons he would pay her off unrelated to the campaign (he's done/said things unrepentantly that could equally impact his campaign, so it's not clear Trump is even motivated to pay her off for this reason).
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/01/07/obama-campai...
I think that's overstated.
First of all, it was the Magna Carta which established that the king was not above the law, so in that sense the founding of the United States was more "and we don't need a king".
Second, there are frequently legal discussions in the present day as to whether a sitting president can be charged with a crime, so there is at least a substantial idea that there is some "sovereign immunity" (quotes because that's not what sovereign immunity refers to)
Third, the founders were also well aware of the threat of political motives for prosecutions and wanted to diminish them with various balance of power checks and balances.
This is also why it’s important to not use the law as a political tool. Otherwise trust in the law is undermined.
In countries like Ukraine and Georgia, they have recently jailed their presidents or opponents. Yanukovich jailed Timushenko. Saakashvili was jailed.
This can wreak a lot of havoc in a country. Look at how the supporters of Imran Khan are reacting, as his opponents always try to arrest him:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Imran_Khan_arrest_attem...
The founders of the United States were criminals and traitors.
"we must all hang together, or we shall all hang separately"
I thought the point of the US was to allow the president to do some sweet real estate deals? From https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/12/bruce_bueno_de.html
> His stories about George Washington, none of which I knew, are even more fascinating. Bueno de Mesquita claims, quite plausibly, that a huge part of George Washington’s motive for fighting the Revolutionary War was to protect his substantial, and critically placed, landholdings in the Ohio Valley.
Remember that the 'Royal Proclamation of 1763' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Proclamation_of_1763 :
> The Proclamation forbade all settlements west of a line drawn along the Appalachian Mountains, which was delineated as an Indian Reserve.[2] Exclusion from the vast region of Trans-Appalachia created discontent between Britain and colonial land speculators and potential settlers. The proclamation and access to western lands was one of the first significant areas of dispute between Britain and the colonies and would become a contributing factor leading to the American Revolution.[3]
> British colonists and land speculators objected to the proclamation boundary since the British government had already assigned land grants to them. Including the wealthy owners of the Ohio company who protested the line to the governor of Virginia, as they had plans for settling the land to grow business.[15] Many settlements already existed beyond the proclamation line,[16] some of which had been temporarily evacuated during Pontiac's War, and there were many already granted land claims yet to be settled. For example, George Washington and his Virginia soldiers had been granted lands past the boundary. Prominent American colonials joined with the land speculators in Britain to lobby the government to move the line further west.
More context from https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/12/bruce_bueno_de.html
> [...] his story made me realize that a large part of my belief in GW is romantic: because I learned about him so early in life, that romantic view is harder to shake and I’ve been less willing to put GW under the public choice microscope than with any current or recent president.
> An excerpt about GW’s wealth:
>> His last position, just before becoming President, was President of the Patowmack Canal Company–the Potomac Canal, as we know it, from the Potomac River. What that canal did was bring, make it possible to bring produce from the Shenandoah Valley–which George owned–up to the port in Alexandria, which had been built by Lawrence, by the Ohio Valley Company, in which George had a direct interest, and shipped goods out. So it was a very profitable undertaking–or so he thought it would be, in the long run, for him. And that’s what motivated him. Most people think of Washington as–besides a great hero, which he certainly was–as kind of a gentleman farmer. Economists have estimated the worth in real dollars adjusted for inflation, not appreciated, of George Washington’s estate, in contemporary terms; and it’s about $20 billion dollars. He is by far the wealthiest President. He is the 59th wealthiest person in American history. Three of the American founding fathers are in the list of the top 100 wealthiest Americans in all of history: Hancock, who was wealthier than Washington–made his money smuggling; and Ben Franklin, who was not quite as wealthy, who made his money because he had a monopoly on the printing press. These are the folks who led the Revolution. These were not the downtrodden. These were not the oppressed. These were people who stood to lose huge amounts of wealth because of the King’s policies. And so they fought a Revolution. Which was, by the way, not very popular. Sixty percent of the colonists either were neutral or opposed to the Revolution.
> Nearly the entire point of the United States at its founding was that the law should apply to political leaders.
The Brits already had that system in place, so no need to secede because of that. Yes, the King was above the law, but he was a figurehead and by the time of the colonials' insubordination the country was already run by parliament and Prime Minister.
Honestly, what the US campaign financing system needs is a full overhaul, its full of legal and illegal-but-ignored corruption.
Plenty of governors have been put in prison but an ex-president is going to have secret service, even in prison?
This is a crime another person served time for so it's definitely a crime worthy of prison but of all the crimes, this is so damn stupid in comparison.
I'd settle for CEOs and Bankers going to prison for all the crimes they have gotten away with on a daily basis than even one president as despised as they are.
What I don't love is the timing of it. It makes it easily dismissible as political theatre. Wait until after the election.
The legal gymnastics this DA is jumping through to attach charges here makes a joke of the entire justice system. I won’t be surprise if Bragg is disbarred for this.
The unfortunate matter though is the damage they did to this country was fairly bipartisan, which I believe plays a large part in Bush's rehabilitation in the public image after leaving office. At least he didn't make mean jokes like some people.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-senator-and-presidenti...
I mean, Saddam was the one making these claims the loudest (to look strong).
I thought this was settled years ago
The only thing the DA does is provide witnesses and physical evidence and read the laws relating to the evidence.
The grand jury asks all the questions of the witnesses and reviews all the evidence.
Then they vote to indict or not in private. The DA asks if they voted and how. They report their votes.
At no point is the DA coercing anyone to vote a certain way, which would be illegal. At no point are jurors discussing the case with anyone outside the jury room (also illegal).
The rumors are there are dozens of indictments, each one based on evidence and witness testimony.
There’s this huge cloud of politicization over this, but the reality is Trump, his attorney, and possibly others committed crimes and this grand jury is holding him accountable.
As law-abiding citizens, is this not what we expect and has it not been the foundation of our judicial system for 247 years?
Or is a former president simply immune from our laws and judicial processes?
Not to cut against your point, but just want to clarify that 247 years ago was 1776, which is not when our judicial system was founded. The first constitution, the Articles of Confederation, wasn't ratified until 1781 and did not include a judiciary. The second constitution, which created the judicial branch, didn't go into effect until March 4, 1789. Subsequently, the judicial system was established by the Judiciary Act on September 24, 1789.
>As law-abiding citizens, is this not what we expect and has it not been the foundation of our judicial system for 247 years?
Well it's what I've been expecting for 50 years, ever since he started coming to South Florida in the 1970's as a quintessential unknown fake millionaire, where the locals recognized right away what his still-strongest defining characteristics were; that he cheats at golf and couldn't be trusted in a real estate deal.
You should have seen what it said in our local paper (The National Enquirer) way before he was on TV, when he was associated with only scandals and bankruptcy. This was a known gossip tabloid and some things might have been exaggerated but surely even more things made it under the radar and were never reported at all. For a few years now I've been wondering where the archives for the National Enquirer are anyway. It would give today's reporters a lot of potential ideas of people who still might be good to talk to.
Now in the 21st century he's still the furthest thing from a life-long Republican, and could never reach high enough to even shine the shoes of Ronald Reagan who was more of an actor than a president himself.
And if you want to invoke great Republican Presidents like Eisenhower or something, ask yourself if you were a Republican what kind of person would you rather vote for, Honest Abe or Dishonest Don?
But there are dozens of people involved in a grand jury and there is just no way to manufacture anything without it becoming public knowledge. Someone in the NYC AD office is very likely a Trump voter and they’d never play along.
This is just a standard legal process with an extraordinary target.
"By intentionally obscuring their payments through Perkins Cole and failing to publicly disclose the true purpose of those payments,” the campaign and DNC “were able to avoid publicly reporting on their statutorily required FEC disclosure forms the fact that they were paying Fusion GPS to perform opposition research on Trump with the intent of influencing the outcome of the 2016 presidential election,” the initial complaint had read."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-2022-midterm-elect...
The truth is you could pin a charge on a large percentage of politicians if you were determined to. There's clearly an element of selective prosecution here, regardless of whether the charge is valid. To make a martyr of Trump over small time crimes is not going to be good for the country in the end.
I mean... great, let's do that. If they're all committing crimes, let's start arresting them until they stop. That's how they treat us after all.
To be perfectly clear, I am not a fan of Donald Trump, and personally think he is likely guilty. I'm just commenting on a specific aspect of the case that I find interesting.
Why is it necessary to state this? I find these kind of statements very interesting. They tell us a lot about unspoken rules, societal taboos, Overton windows etc etc
Someone still has to make a descision.
In general, I'd say there is huge bias in favor of Trump though. People respect authority and fame to a shocking degree.
I've posted various explanations about this over the years - a bunch are at https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so.... Some good threads to start with might be https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21607844 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22902490. Also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17014869, which shows how far back political discussion goes on HN, as well as the argument about politics on HN.
If anyone reads those past explanations and has a question about this that I haven't answered there, I'd be happy to take a crack at it.
However, I'd be interested in learning more from those here who do have that knowledge and are willing to share perspective on these sort of events.
In general, I think it's valuable to be curious about things you're not necessarily interested in.
Edit: The comments above yours (at the time of writing) are mostly okay, but as I read further down, it ventures into the territory of 'such and such person and party is bad' which I think HN is not a good place for that kind of discord.
The admission here is that the only reason why this was upvoted or on the front page is because the only good news is Trump schadenfreude and the opportunity for launching cheap attacks here.
The only 'bad news' is any good news that benefits Trump. (Which never makes it on top on HN anyway, and it shouldn't and vice versa because it is pure politics and creates a complete mess of the comments and dang knows it.)
Just look at the wave of flagged comments everywhere in this thread. It tells use that there is good reason why such news like this should not be on top of this page. (It is not intellectually interesting, it is partisan and a heavily divisive flame-bait topic.)
It never helps pouring fuel on the flames.
You can already assume right-wing media will spin this into "Really? All you could get him for was a BJ?" Feels a bit like the late-night comedy of the Clinton impeachment.
Getting indictment of any sort can lead to larger ones.
Other indictments are likely coming from other ongoing investigations.
No, you don’t know what the actual charges are.
You know the central focus of the investigation was a particular campaign finance fraud.
What the–reportedly more than 30–charges that have come out of the investigation are, is another question. What are they? We’ll see.
There are worse things coming down the pipeline than Trump anyway, it seems he was just a trial balloon for the fascist era we're heading into. I just wish he'd go away already.
CNN Law Enforcement analyst John Miller reported (based on two sources) to Erin Burnett that the indictment has 34 counts relating to falsification of business documents/records.
1. First there are two alternative realities being played in real time in US: This arguably is the first time this has happened in US history (maybe civil war was another time) but two populations have become so isolated that they essentially live in 2 different realities. An amusing moment that depicts this occurred in John Oliver's recent segment where he plays a clip of Ron Desantis bragging that the UN hates the laws he passed and John plays it completely incredulous why would someone brag that he is hated by the UN. Since this audience is mostly liberal and understands the liberal worldview, please quiz yourself what worldview would brag about being hated by UN. If you cant understand, you literally can't understand anything about ~48% of the country, and if you're serious about politics you need to at least understand the 2 sides, ideally more than that. The fact is most of the US population barely understands the other side and so they will necessarily clash on most political issues.
2. There is a huge amount of democratic energy on both sides. There was always a lot of political energy on the left, since RooseVelt, Civil Rights movement, now LGBTQ, Black Lives Matter etc. It used to be a characteristic of the left. Now there is in fact a suprisingly large amount of political energy on the right, that first started with the Tea Party Movement in the 2010's and of culminating Trump who could essentially be considered a Populist Leader from the Right.
3. So we have two populations, with large political energies compared to any time in recent history, who also see the world so differently that neither can understand each other. The only reason this hasn't led to civil war like situation is because they both still to some extent follow the law, and still believe in Democracy as a schelling point for choosing who rules them. Now if you go ahead and jail the populist leader, you are going even closer to complete political fracture especially after a good chunk of the population believes the election was stolen from him. If you think this will convince any Trump supporters they're wrong (lol), I have a pipe dream to sell you.
Quick question, who is the most criminal president in US history? If your instant answer wasn't Obama (or if it was Obama because of drone strikes lol), you definitely do not understand the other side in any meaningful way to heal any political fracture this country is suffering with. So good job playing your reenactment in our version of Populares vs Optimates, and we all know how that ended
> Now if you go ahead and jail the populist leader, you are going even closer to complete political fracture especially after a good chunk of the population believes the election was stolen from him. If you think this will convince any Trump supporters they're wrong (lol), I have a pipe dream to sell you
This post has a high density of non sequiturs. The purpose of the indictment wasn’t to convince Trump voters that the election wasn’t stolen. It’s unrelated to basically anything you wrote about. It’s about enforcing laws and following up on crimes.
Also, you seem to have missed Trump’s recent decline in popularity. He hasn’t been very popular for a while now, outside of the staunch core supporters. Even Fox News has started moving on and isn’t afraid to criticize him any more.
Your post is a lot of meta talk and very short on actual....crimes. The idea behind this indictment is that Trump broke the law as a citizen. Not that he did stuff in office that people dislike.
Which law did Obama break which you think he evaded prosecution for on account of being president. Please be specific.
Don't make the mistake of thinking that "both" realities are equally valid. They are not, and that matters.
Reality matters, and you don't get to make up your own just because you're angry, numerous and armed.
I'm not saying Trump is a criminal; I am not on the jury and do not have the facts. But I'm saying someone should be convicted if they're guilty even if it has political implications.
Whether or not people are angry at a result, that is their choice to make.
For a non-American, could someone kindly explain what worldview would brag about being hated by UN?
You could have written this exact comment about the political environment if there were live footage of him shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.
This is not true. Republican voters have been proven to be able to discern fake news when monetarily motivated. They only swallow lies for free. Here is the paper on it.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01540-w
> There is a huge amount of democratic energy on both sides.
This is not true, as the entire gain on the right has been on the back of disenfranchment, gerrymandering, populism and threats of anti democratic measures.
This goes from having no polls in democratic areas, to passing laws making it hard, confusing or impossible to register and get mail in ballots on time.
Having people with guns near voting stations, having the sitting president asking people "to find the votes", having the media peddle a stolen election when the president lost the popular vote twice.
None of that is democratic energy.Then again the GOP went to 2024 without a manifesto. First time in political history that a running party doesn't even make promises, but who cares, they were not there to win votes but to make others lose them.
> The only reason this hasn't led to civil war like situation is because
Its because one side is economically, and numerically dwarfing the other. What are states with the economy of a third world country and the population of a medium city gonna do if federal taxes stop propping up their economy. Since 2008 not a single Republican state has paid more in taxes than has taken in federal income. They are all sucking the tit of the federal gov and a "civil war" situation would end in about 5 minutes when their entire military doesn't get paid.
> Quick question, who is the most criminal president in US history? If your instant answer wasn't Obama
God you would have to explain this one. Because you have a tape of Nixon's aid saying they invented the war on drugs to convict black people and left wing protestors. And that is hard to top as both failed policy, criminal behaviour, loss of gdp, freedom, politically motivated state terrorism... like jesus to top that you would have to prove Obama did 9/11
I apparently knew the concept, but not the phrase. Thank you for making me learn something new today!
Surely not the constitutional originalists, since under the constitution and its original interpretation the UN Charter is the supreme law of the land.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.4.2018101... & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_G._Trump
> American electrical engineer, inventor, and physicist. A professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1936 to 1973, he was a recipient of the National Medal of Science and a member of the National Academy of Engineering ... In 1943, after the enigmatic Nikola Tesla’s death, the Federal Bureau of Investigation asked Trump to examine Tesla’s papers to determine whether he had been working on anything that might have relevance to the war. ... After the war Trump became the director of MIT’s High-Voltage Research Laboratory, a position he held from 1946 until his retirement in 1980.
Anyone else would've been at least indicted as well. This is an indication that the rule of law is prevailing. Even former presidents aren't above the law.
> After he became president, Mr. Trump and his company reimbursed Mr. Cohen for the hush money and falsely recorded those payments as legal fees.
so, if i understand correctly, the main issue is the "falsely recorded those payments as legal fees" part and not the hush money part?GOP
Warren Warding, Teapot OIL reserve scandal
Richard Nixon, Watergate which was funded by illegal Corp political funds which were money laundered through Mexican banks
Donald Trump, Alledged money laundering to fund hush money to porn star, alledge russian money in Apartment sales via Netherlands anonyomous corps, etc.
I cannot seem to find any factual stuff on corrupt Democratic Presidents, aha aha while the Electoral College act was inspired by the Civil War events including the only time Democrats attempted voter fraud none of the elected Democrat presidents were involved in that effort.
In a word: nothing.
Regardless of how you see Trump, he is, and has been basically since he became President, the presumptive nominee of the Republican party with remaining candidates hoping to take him down. With all that in mind, what does this indictment actually mean in terms of possible penalty?
In a word: nothing.
Felon can still run for POTUS spot. There is a reason for that too along the lines of "well, you don't want current political party to just make up shit willy-nilly".
All this before we even get to the substance of the actual transgression, which, to me at least, is on about the same level as Bill Clinton's charge ( and arguably, his was worse depending on deeply you want to discuss it -- because contrary to some comedians, it was not just about a bj ).
So who benefits?
Trump. Media ( good circus equals good ratings ). The guy who will be running the circus will make a name for himself.
And.. that is it. I am not even sure why I am taking this as stoically as I am. Maybe the over the top happiness displayed on other social media made me hesitate.
FWIW, I am all about 'no one is above the law', but, I think, anyone on this forum can easily point to instances where that is not exactly axiomatic lately. And I think you will note my restraint in not pointing out any names for the sake of trying to keep this post semi-neutral in tone.
Now.. note that they are getting him on some relatively small stuff. All that stuff about Russia, nuclear secrets raid, running bs charity, being peed on.. none of that panned out in a way that touched Trump. And that is the last card to play.
You would think they would get him at least on something better to put on the news. They are getting him on a legal technicality that he will shrug off the same way he shrugged off not paying taxes.
And this? This will only make believers more adamant and it does not in any way damage Trump. This is democrats saying:
"We don't know how, but by golly we are gonna lose this one!"
You gotta laugh man. You gotta. Otherwise you will start crying.
There are like 3 other criminal investigations currently ongoing into him, plus a civil one in New York.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-c...
Are their supposedly intelligent people on this forum who truly believe Donald Trump to be a patriotic American, holding the interests of the country above the interests of himself?
Makes sense to have some minor flexibility in this standard, so people aren't continually running for elections in order to stay out of prison. But if (for example) a criminal like K. Fujimori is running for president of Peru, she is obviously a serious candidate and shouldn't be legally threatened.
Let the wheels of justice turn.
Outrage mitigated. Base can’t rage.
Biden easily wins re-election.
Pardoning Trump would continue the example set by Gerald Ford in pardoning Nixon.
"Helping the country heal" seems hollow to me. To use a few metaphors:
1. Physical healing can't properly happen until the foreign object is cleared and infection removed from the body.
2. Mental healing doesn't fully happen until person comes to terms with what's happened. Burying the trauma is a risky time-bomb of a "solution".
If injustice goes unpunished or unaddressed, victims typically don't have closure. They lose confidence in the rule of law. Some take it into their own hands.
Large portions of the American public have been traumatized by Trump's behavior. We are seeking justice.
And any temporary comfort from pardoning Trump would be undermined by the uneven application of justice.
But if one of the insurrection prosecutions makes it up - then it's hard to see it being pardoned. "Petty" is not a word that springs to mind when describing the events of Jan 6th.
Braggs ignored many democrats advice on this and went rogue.
Perhaps if other recent elites were prosecuted for lying the United States into wars or openly advocating for torture, I would have a bit more patience for prosecuting Trump's bad bedroom behavior.
I am reminded of Clinton's Lewinsky scandal. Although I was very young at the time, it seemed so trivial in comparison to the magnitude of the office. The next administration went on to destabilize the Middle East under false pretenses. Where was the equivalent outrage for, "Lying to congress" ?
The president is largely a figurehead and a politician foremost. There's nothing honest or reputable about the profession. They could be uncharitably described as professional liars. Their sexual peccadilloes are of no interest to me. The obsession with their bedroom activities seems totally dysfunctional. These people should not be idolized or presented as a standard of behavior in any regard, much less for their sex lives.
Hard not to see this as yet another "The Emperor Has No Clothes" moment for party politics and US democracy. Outstanding issues remain, such as the existing wars, new wars and serious economic issues. Given this context, under what standard is it relevant how Mr. Trump paid a sex worker?
I wish the best for the US and the world at large, but this is just insane. For those somnambulists who are under the influence of this illusion, for those who think this is a rational endeavor which is not symptomatic of a much larger dysfunction - Please, I implore you to take a step back and examine the bigger picture. Consider a brief glance in the mirror as well.
Prior to Edward's indictment he was thought be the future of the democratic party, if Edwards was convicted on all counts he faced up the 30 years in prison, he beat the charges though -- a rarity in federal prosecutions.
So there is precedent for indictments for this particular crime, not that this should matter, in a republic everyone is subject to the same law and jurisprudence.
Respectfully he wasn't seen that way. His indictment was in 2011. Obama was president and still had another election to do. Edwards had not been relevant since 2008, really since 2004, as no one thought he could be Hilary or Obama in the primary.
>So there is precedent for indictments for this particular crime
One could argue its shows this is a waste of time and money.
The country doesn't need this. Trump was fading away.
Sure, but boy does it seem like a Plan Z attempt by Democrats to get literally any kind of charge to stick to Trump after 7!!! years of trying. And this particular case is one that's been known about for pretty much that entire time but was shelved, probably because they know it's weak.
He'll probably have a video out on this soon.
How do you know? The charges are sealed.
Also there are 34 charges, and 12 people agreed there is substancial evidence to go ahead with the case.
I think the poster child for this is Henry Kissenger.
http://edition.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/04/22/uk.kissinger/...
Possible the arrest comes to thwart presidential nomination?
The fact that we've come this far -- with all that Trump has done -- and are now only getting to what equates to a grain of sand in the grand scheme of all that he has managed to pull off... that tells you a lot. We've been playing with fire for a long time. If this isn't just the start of charges, we're in a lot of trouble.
so lots of questions like this will come up:
What does the state of NY have anything to do with enforcing federal election laws?
How is paying hush money a crime, when it hasn't been before?
How can it be an illegal Campaign contribution, when Trump was financing his own campaign?
7 year old case, how isn't this past statue of limitations?
The State's witness is a self-confessed liar, how can his testimony be sufficient.
Selective prosecution to try to sway an election was rejected once by voters after when Bill Clinton was impeached for his affair. So this will not directly boost Democrat's chances, might even make Donald a martyr. But would make sense if the strategy was to split the vote on the right.
Trump being in legal trouble is the carrot that got DeSantis to run. The problem is if DeSanits defeats Trump in the primary, he can't win in the general precisely because he defeated Trump. Trump has too many supporters that will never switch sides.
I am not one for conspiracy but it really does not seem like the tides are moving in the United States favor right now.
Why does every day feel like we are getting closer to some kind of tipping point? Into what I don’t know, but I’m hoping we don’t get to a point where there’s no going back.
It is hard not to read this as politically motivated. A lot of this crowd tends to lean excessively left, but I would urge you to be aware of the broader geopolitical considerations of what is at hand here.
There is a streak of nihilism in the tactics used against this former president, and it has become an attrition game where winning means being the last one disqualified for cheating or the only one left not in jail. As though they think it's only organized crime when you lose. Comedian Duncan Trussel quipped the other day that politics has become, "an Olympics for narcisistic sociopaths," and that's a pretty good characterization. I'm not American and I can't say I'm neutral, but I do think that the malice this indictment demonstrates is weakness, and that's a fundamentally un-american sentiment that will repel a lot of reasonable people. I have acquaintences who will treat it as a betrayal, but what I believe is that Americans are better than this. Poignant that we live in a time where that could be so unforgivable.
As side note, heres my 2 cents:
This is extremely dangerous and unprecedented. Its a long standing practice common law tradition to refrain from prosecuting political leaders unless a serious crime is involved (Prosecutorial discretion).
Ignore Trump, he'll likely win or worse-case get a misdemeanour. This just changed the whole game, the judicial branch just got weaponised as political tool.
Unless somebody puts a conclusive stop to this nonsense, things are about to get very ugly. This is the kind of thing you see from third world countries with corrupt/unstable institutions.
Welcome to the mess created by the democrat party and there Big Tech/media axis.
I'm just astounded that the centrist blob thinks that they can get away with this utilizing a largely right-wing military, an extremely right-wing police force, and a extremely well-armed and numerous right-wing element of the population. It's madness. Maybe (most likely) the lords of surveillance and and propaganda have a better idea of the country's pulse and and potential reaction than I do. Maybe the incompetents in the Biden Admin aren't running the show, and the intelligence agencies are fully and competently in control.
If some African, Central Asian or South American country arrested the presidential frontrunner for paying a prostitute not to mention that he patronized her, everyone would recognize it as a country about to fall into violent anarchy. It's sad that in the clouds our suburban upper-middle class have their heads in, there apparently aren't any mirrors.
If you believe in democracy, you hate this. If you believe in the version of the "rule of law" being bandied around that insists that law occupies some abstract space above the will of the deplorable population, a place ruled by angels that resemble the Warren Court and were educated at Harvard, Yale, or small private liberal arts colleges in the northeast - I think you may be absolutely blindsided in the coming months.
edit: somehow, corporations got the unlimited ability to bribe politicians and political parties, but campaign finance laws can be warped to cover this shit.
There are three classes of countries, as I see it, that indict or jail leaders out-of-power in the opposition. (1) dictatorships like Myanmar (2) quasi-dictatorships acting under a veil of democracy, like Brazil (3) places on the brink of civil rupture, like Israel.
To say that this was intended by the Constitution of a breakaway American Republic is mad, because no sane English colonist would have chosen to renounce the crown if they'd known an idiot like Donald J Trump would be President 200 years later. Of course power should be held to account! As many people here have said, Presidents that committed war crimes would be a better target for prosecution. Or Trump's own crimes in office would be.
This prosecution under these auspices and for these reasons places us (Americans) squarely in the realm of third world semi-democracies.
I don't know if anyone has brought this up, but I hope Joe Biden will be wise enough to immediately issue Trump a pardon and bring this to a close. If Trump is indicted again for something serious, like insurrection, that would be a different matter. It's not possible to divide politics from law in a case where the defendant has a rabid political following and was the President of the country (as insane as that seems). Biden needs to pardon him right away.