Why would I subsidize that as a business owner? I can fire 9/10ths of the people who do that job instead.
Aren’t the comparisons to blue collar labor a little much here?
If I hire 10 people to dig the ditches, and then I get a backhoe, yes, one guy is needed to dig the ditch.
But backhoes are expensive investments, LLMs are not.
LLMs gives everyone of those ditch diggers a backhoe. Now I have an army of backhoes! Unless the world runs out of a need for ditches, time to start a ditch digging empire.
Yep. If I have 10 people doing Job X, then ChatGPT makes a person doing Job X ten times more productive, I can fire 9 people doing job X and retain the same output, which gives me a temporary profit boost. But wait! My competitor also had 10 people doing Job X, and now they're producing ten times the output of my company!
If ChatGPT/Copilot X made developers working at my company twice as productive, I wouldn't be thinking about firing half of them, I would be thinking about which of the 8000 features and improvements on our backlog we could finally prioritize...
But the poorest and most vulnerable will. It happens every time. This time, we could do better--and we won't.
then OpenAI either discontinue or slightly adjust the model such that it doesn't work now
there goes your business
The industrial revolution switched work from almost exclusively manual labor to a more intellectual one while improving manual labor itself (better tools, etc.).
This one is cranking up a notch times 100 by trying to replace basically the human out of the equation altogether (This is the end goal of automation).
It's going to be a really interesting decade tbh.
