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0 pointsckardat1232y ago0 comments

The scheme definitely could get foiled if people were just told that a certain stock would go up (without hedging against the market), because if it's a red day for the market the whole e-mail list could get wiped out as all the stocks go down.

I would think that there is approximately a 50% chance of most stocks beating the market on any given day though.

If you send a bunch of e-mails saying "${ticker} will go up more than the market tomorrow, I'd recommend you invest and hedge with a bet against the market" for a variety of random tickers, I'd guess around half of them would pay off.

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andreygrehov2y ago

I'm not sure if that is truth (today). The majority of stocks have been doing a massive nose dive within the past year. I own stocks of approximately 10 different companies. All, except AAPL, under water. So - 90%. In contrast, defense and healthcare stock market has seen a different trend. I own zero of these.

ckardat123OP2y ago

That's why I included the part about hedging against the market. There may be days where almost every stock goes down, but generally only around half will every go down more than the market.

KeplerBoy2y ago

Beating the market also means just falling less than the index on some days. Not sure if those customers would be happy.

The reverse also applies a.k.a. everyone could make money in the past few years.

ckardat123OP2y ago

That's why I included the part about also hedging against the market.

Not that it's particularly easy to do, but if you took out an equal weighted short position on the $SPY while going long on some ticker, it would pay off if that ticker outperformed the market.

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0 pointsckardat1232y ago0 comments

I would think that there is approximately a 50% chance of most stocks beating the market on any given day though.

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andreygrehov2y ago

ckardat123OP2y ago

That's why I included the part about hedging against the market. There may be days where almost every stock goes down, but generally only around half will every go down more than the market.

KeplerBoy2y ago

Beating the market also means just falling less than the index on some days. Not sure if those customers would be happy.

The reverse also applies a.k.a. everyone could make money in the past few years.

ckardat123OP2y ago

That's why I included the part about also hedging against the market.

Not that it's particularly easy to do, but if you took out an equal weighted short position on the $SPY while going long on some ticker, it would pay off if that ticker outperformed the market.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse