The training data thing is a problem mainly for LLMs, so it might be a limitation if we purely scale up LLMs but there are other types of AI around too

Chip scaling still seems to be going pretty fast, and we may discover new ways to make better use of the chips we currently have, like better methods of quantisation, or just using more of them, which could get us just far enough to reach the self improvement threshold

So we could end up hitting a wall with chip scaling or something but I don’t think it’s that likely