The calculus on this is going to be hard because methane can’t absorb photons that have already been absorbed by the atmosphere around it.

It’s a bit like calculating if I’ll die of cancer. If you could protect me from everything you might be able to know that I’d die of colon cancer at 75. But here I am breathing weird dust and walking a route that starts on city streets and driving X miles a year and you just don’t know what’s gonna get me.