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0 pointspjscott2y ago0 comments

Thank you. We are nowhere close to the Pareto-efficient frontier for risk reduction. We could be safer, while sacrificing much less prosperity for that safety, if things were structured better.

(The optimal number of plane crashes is not zero, as the saying goes, and it’s probably more than we have now.)

0 comments

robertlagrant2y ago

Optimal by what measure? I don't know the saying.

AnthonyMouse2y ago

You multiply the cost of prevention by the risk of a crash and see if it exceeds the cost of a crash.

Some plane crashes can be prevented with a $0.30 warning light. Preventing those plane crashes is optimal.

Some plane crashes can only be prevented by permanently grounding all planes, because they'll be caused by a confluence of improbable events. Trying to mitigate every implausible circumstance that could potentially lead to a crash is not optimal, even when some of them proceed to actually happen.

robertlagrant2y ago

Ah - so the measure is cost?

I suppose you could let the market decide, and just have airlines publish their failure rates, and more process means a higher ticket price. But it's a bit grisly.

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0 pointspjscott2y ago0 comments

Thank you. We are nowhere close to the Pareto-efficient frontier for risk reduction. We could be safer, while sacrificing much less prosperity for that safety, if things were structured better.

(The optimal number of plane crashes is not zero, as the saying goes, and it’s probably more than we have now.)

0 comments

robertlagrant2y ago

Optimal by what measure? I don't know the saying.

AnthonyMouse2y ago

You multiply the cost of prevention by the risk of a crash and see if it exceeds the cost of a crash.

Some plane crashes can be prevented with a $0.30 warning light. Preventing those plane crashes is optimal.

robertlagrant2y ago

Ah - so the measure is cost?

I suppose you could let the market decide, and just have airlines publish their failure rates, and more process means a higher ticket price. But it's a bit grisly.

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse