If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recovery and it's not especially tech-focused. So, I think there's at least a bit more at play here.
There's a seismic shift occurring with WFH, Starlink, etc. Yes, San Francisco is near the bottom of many post-Covid economic recovery lists, but are there other metros that are on sound financial footing if 30%+ of their populace chooses a more suburban/rural lifestyle?
1. NYC is booming IMHO
2. Pre-pandemic, there was barely room to walk on the sidewalks in many parts of NYC, now it is better (presumably as people come in 2x a week, not 5x). Some subways have seats now, but many are still standing-room-only.
3. For the last 8yrs pre-pandemic, I used to go to SF/SV 4x to 5x a year for work/conferences...My last Cali trip (cancelled) was literally April 2020 for NVIDIA GTC...I havent been in Cali since 2020. Most has been replaced with Zoom, some has gone to other cities.
SF and NYC used to be fairly comparable as far as cost of living goes but now renting in SF is comparable to a dozen other metros (eg. $3k for a 1 bed, under $4k for a 2 bed) but in NYC it's a now an absurdly expensive outlier eg. $5k+ for a 1 bed in a convenient area in Manhattan or Brooklyn.
Beyond that eating out/going out/uber+taxis all seemed much more expensive in NYC than SF when I visited last month.
A lot of outdated commercial real estate in SF needs to be converted to public housing but that doesn't mean the economy is bad. I think there is a narrative from NIMBY's who think it's bad that housing is going to be created.
That said, if it really matters that much to you, you'll find plenty of swing states with mid-sized cities in the Midwest. Upsides are low cost of living, 20 minutes from the center of the city to cornfields. Downsides are you can't go too far north if you don't like cold winters.
No area is thriving right now thanks to the recession, but it sounds like you are aiming for remote work anyway, so why does that matter? If I were in your shoes, I would pick a place that has the geography, climate, and cost of living I am looking for and not worry so much about the politics and economic prospects of the area.
At this point saying one is uninterested in living in a red state could be about party politics, but it also could just as much about not being inclined to subject onesself to starkly higher risks of being shot and killed (the outcome of someone's personal politics).
eg. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/04/23/surprising...
> In reality, the region the Big Apple comprises most of is far and away the safest part of the U.S. mainland when it comes to gun violence, while the regions Florida and Texas belong to have per capita firearm death rates (homicides and suicides) three to four times higher than New York’s. On a regional basis it’s the southern swath of the country — in cities and rural areas alike — where the rate of deadly gun violence is most acute, regions where Republicans have dominated state governments for decades.
See e.g. https://katv.com/news/nation-world/idaho-hospital-to-end-bab...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/04/21/abortion-ba...
State laws have benefited me or the people I care about in the following ways:
-my wife had 8 more weeks of parental leave
-16 of my wife’s parental leave weeks were paid leave from the state’s family leave act
-state laws provide paid family and medical leave in case I should need it in the future
-my wife and daughter have an easy time finding access to all women’s healthcare, and will not have to worry about their body and well being being sacrificed during pregnancy
-minimum wage laws require a much higher minimum exempt salary, and overtime laws prevent having to work all day without commensurate pay
-non compete bans ensure we have a more balanced playing field against employers
-free breakfast and lunch in school for all kids
I cannot list them all, and it is not all rainbows and sunshine, but claiming that the way a state is managed has little effect on one’s life is nonsense.
This is a comment that originates in privilege. The concern for many people is not simply that they would have to be friends with conservative people. The concern is that the government and the local community will be hostile to them. This is true for a variety of targeted groups including LGBT+ people, ethnic minorities, or even just women. For example, it is objectively riskier to be pregnant in places like Kansas City because local abortion laws rule out certain medical procedures that could save the mother's life[1]. That isn't something a woman in a blue state needs to worry about.
[1] - https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/health-care/article...
I deeply believe that unwanted children make society worse so expect abortion banning states to become less desirable in 15-20 years.
Policy climate can br a very good reason to avoid living in certain areas.
Failure to recognize this in time can be a very bad way to avoid living entirely.
> I'm a liberal-leaning moderate but many of my favorite people (friends and family) are conservative, and many of my hobbies tend to be populated mainly by the conservative demographic.
I have had friends all over the political spectrum, but “ability to make friends” is not the reason people avoid particular political climates. If you are privileged enough not to need to ubderstand that, congratulations.
> No area is thriving right now thanks to the recession
What recession?
Well said...and true.
Of course it is. Imagine your daughter getting pregnant and being unable to abort the pregnancy even if her survival would be at stake, or your son ending up gay or trans? Both of these not-unlikely events can have real, deadly impact depending if you are living in a red vs purple or blue state!
> but my take on it is, if I can't make friends with people who hold beliefs different from my own, then maybe I'm the asshole.
These people may simply beat you or your children up for not conforming to their narrow worldview. Hate crimes have exploded since 2016, and on top of that comes the everyday gun violence.
Beliefs are one thing - I'm a socialist and still enjoy debating with libertarians. But some things - like the right to self-determination about your body, reproduction and sexuality or the freedom to believe in anything else (or nothing) but Jesus - these are existential questions, and I cannot (and do not) reasonably engage in discussion with someone who 'd like to see me or my friends and family dead.
We're not really in a recession. Tech was probably in a recession in 2022, but Google and Meta both had good earnings reports, so maybe we're through that. Finance is having its own issues. Everyone else is a little nervous, but doing ok, except for inflation.
> but my take on it is, if I can't make friends with people who hold beliefs different from my own, then maybe I'm the asshole.
It's not only about getting along with people on an individual level.
"Politics" is why Massachusetts has a social safety net for many, there are abortion rights, the first gay marriage in the US was a short walk away, my trans neighbor can walk down the street without being hassled, there's countless different flavors of churches and other religious meeting places (as well as many seculars), and education and science are generally valued.
And when some people traveled to Boston to promote aggressive right-wing ideas, an overwhelming number of locals showed up to tell them to take a hike, and sent the message that they had the backs of the people the clowns were threatening. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Free_Speech_Rally
This Blue State is far from perfect, but I see plenty of practical reasons for someone like myself to live here rather than in a Red State, no matter how nice and decent the typical Red State resident might be.
I can do most things I want to do. My max drive is like 15 minutes.
And if I need Chicago for like their airport.. meh, 2 hour drive. About the same as my old 7 mile subway ride while I lived in the city.
Atlanta GA, Austin TX, etc. are all "blue in a sea of red" as they say. Lived in the former myself for many years. Yes you're affected by state laws, but most of the folks in large cities are going to be less like the stereotype associated with the state.
-enacting paid sick leave
-enacting mandatory heat and water breaks for manual labor jobs
-modifying their police budgets
-restricting fracking within city limits
-restricting greenhouse gas-intense products
[0]https://www.ksat.com/news/texas/2023/04/18/texas-house-appro...
(Furthermore, in the long term SF will be fine because the geography and climate is beautiful, and people will always be clamoring to live there regardless of industry, in the same way people desire to live in Honolulu. But it's in for a rough time in the near term as the tech industry diasporizes.)
I think that's only half of it. The other half is a lot of people were only in SF for the money. When given the opportunity to leave and make the same money, they did.
I found living without a car in SF not so ideal because it ultimately means living your life in a pretty small subset of the overall metro area. That slice of the metro area is also disproportionately gentrified and has that kind of yuppie vibe (with prices to match).
I feel the same from visiting other cities like Seattle, Chicago, DC, Philly, etc. New York is the only US city I’ve been to that I would say is actually comparable to other global cities. All the other US cities pale in comparison.
Really so cal, texas, South east, and west should be walkable but their car centric nightmares filled with traffic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-09/us-public...
The outlook isn't good, and the shortfalls mean there will likely be service cuts, driving people away from city centers even more. SF will probably be worse off because of how poorly it's handled homelessness, theft, and drug use.
https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/u...
I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines taxation.
Is that the wrong way to be looking at things?
(EDIT: these numbers are old, my bad!)
Given recent history (Phoenix MSA’s 2011 GDP was lower than 2007 GDP, whereas SF never went below 2007 levels), it’s not unreasonable to think that other cities are simply in artificial bubbles from the $3tn that was given to consumers over the past 3 years.
The cities' respective recoveries show that the finance firms made the right call.
That isn't the same as being a new hub for a lot of business creation and frankly haven't seen a lot of evidence established companies are eager to make it into a new hub or that there's a bunch of growing startups there with real traction.
It can be brutal to get through. The bonus on the other side of it is that the summers are amazing with all of the public beaches and summer events going on.
Cold climate, warm people, actual downtown with actual transit, great food, great diversity, affordable, actual amenities and great intellectual life.
The cold climate isn’t too different from Toronto (and no it’s really not that windy).
And states aren’t monolithic just because they “red” or “blue”. You’ll find liberals and conservatives in every state.
I understand not wanting to live in a state that has laws you can live under, whether abortion or gun control or marijuana, but remove those and there are still a ton of options.
But you're right, at this point, I'd still rather be in SD than SF.
The weather is a huge plus, and I anticipate the city will handle global warming a little better than other regions. The county has made a lot of good decisions with water management too, from keeping the reservoirs full to supplying almost 10% of the water supply from a desal plant.
I disagree that the coastline is the only "nice" place to get a house, the ocean is pretty accessible from most parts of the city due to the highway designs.
Of course, there's issues with homelessness, retail theft, poor public transit, expensive housing. But it all seems a little more tame to me than the same issues in LA/SF/Seattle.
Edit: Even if it costs a lot to convert (that is where tax incentives would usually help if done correctly). Having them sit empty costs more eventually.
These are buildings designed for communal occupancy as offices, why not lean into that as residences? Think like a 1-2 floor cooperative housing for a community of 50-100 people in 25-50 family units. Everyone gets private bedrooms, storage, and a den. But the expensive amenities that foster community are shared: Large commercial-style communal kitchens and bathrooms. That would enable other big shared amenities on the floor like a gym, a daycare, or coworking desks.
The epidemic of loneliness plaguing millennials is in my estimation largely due to a lack of community. Think of the kind of community that was east to build at university - why can’t we have that in the conversion of these big floor plates
And unless it's a really cool old industrial building, you end up with crappy residential buildings that aren't tremendously desired unless the location is really, really good.
--edit-- fixed grammer
The UC system is at its limits for admissions and UCSF doesn’t have an undergraduate program. I wonder what it would take to covert some large section of downtown into a UC. Could revitalize the businesses that support the office buildings. Housing would be a problem but with BART and light rail access it seems like that could be addressed (dorms in West Oakland could be one stop on Bart away)
San Francisco is no stranger to boom and bust, decadence and plague. Please wave hello to your quiet and strong neighbors, the ethnic Chinese community. San Francisco has one of the highest proportions of ethnic Chinese overall of any USA metro. I predict this will increase, as the masters of Finance deteriorate into public and ridiculous escapades.
I've been calling the same thing for the past 8 months:
<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32746966>
(And I'm hardly the first.)
Just googled it, and shit, it did: https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/350-california-sf-offic... Holy hell. Now to find out if they land bank it or blow it up.
Mass transit in the bay area sucks. Bart is packed, loud, and uncomfortable. I feel unsafe at my station (Fruitvale). So my only other option is to take the bus which is an hour each way because of traffic.
not “happening compared to the rest of the bay”, the bar is really that low and the market is saying what bay area permabulls cant perceive
Private bathrooms for every employee? No commute? The office can never "feel like my home", my home doesn't have my co-workers in it. It's an environment 100% of my design.
When I look back over past jobs, the question I wish I had asked more in advance is where will I sit here? I am never going to work in a barn again. It's not just about open plan seating, which has pros and cons. But when the company stacks people like boxes, it turns out they think of you as something fungible.