You don't need full emulation, just protocol emulation should be enough, right? This might involve having more storage than the authentic device (or getting very clever with compression) in order to e.g. be able to authentically provide a "firmware dump", and maybe run at a faster clock speed so that the timing isn't suspicious, but it still seems easier than full emulation.
> Anything is possible, but this would be extremely difficult.
I agree that it would be very difficult, but unfortunately this property sort of caps the "maximum desirable popularity" of a solution: Nobody will go through that effort for a niche/hobbyist HSM, but as soon as people start protecting serious/expensive secrets with it, somebody might just do it.
Shipping each unit with a private key only known to the vendor, and providing a one-time attestation service, could make this attack much harder to pull off at scale (as you would need to physically extract one key per fake device produced as an attacker).