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0 pointsNemoNobody2y ago0 comments

What currency is stable enough to replace the Dollar? Very likely we repeat the Cold War - Western countries will definitely continue to use the Dollar.

I wouldn't want to use the Yuan considering the frequent government manipulation of the currency.

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mark_l_watson2y ago

Fair question! If I had to guess: the USA + Europe + Canada + Australia + a few other countries will form one trading block, and BRICS + about 20 other countries will form a separate trading block. The different trading blocks will use different reserve currencies. The BRICS+ trading block would use a basket of currencies and our trading block would use the US dollar, or a basket of currencies with the dollar being the largest percentage in the basket.

I love to travel and visit other countries and meet people. My hope is that a tourist will continue to be able to easily visit any country, even when the world bifurcates into two trading blocks.

dilyevsky2y ago

It’s not just about stability (and rmb is basically pegged to dollar anyway) - you also need to run a deficit and that’s not something China is willing or able to do for foreseeable future

photonbeam2y ago

> you also need to run a deficit

Why is this needed?

nly2y ago

> > you also need to run a deficit

> Why is this needed?

At a guess...being the worlds reserve currency creates demand for your currency which drives it's price up. This is bad in general because it means your exports become more expensive. The way you deal with that is to create debt to export in the form of US treasuries, which foreigners can then buy. One way to create treasuries is to create a public deficit (not strictly necessarily, you could raise money even with a surplus and then invest it)

shreyshnaccount2y ago

Probably only the euro. The yuan isn't the best option for reasons you mention, and the next largest reserve which countries hold is only the euro. Link to interesting podcast episode about exactly that: The Red Line Podcast https://open.spotify.com/episode/6DVtj0E1v6pRgAiZwytmbo

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