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0 pointsdefrost2y ago0 comments

Globally, annually, there is roughly 850 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) worth of containerized goods handled at ports worldwide.

Aside from container shipping there is raw bulk material shipping, eg: Western Australia ships > 800 million tonnes of raw ores to China annually (not local, not light).

Looking at just container shipping and the major major routes; there is

* 42 million TEU's intra asia (within asia, 'local' but not necc. 'short')

* 42 million TEU's 'far east' to Europe + North America.

and then a long tail of lesser volume routes, many quite lengthy (asia -> south americas, north | south americas, etc.)

Point being by "vast majority" are you talking raw ship numbers (there are many small ships) or cargo volumes | weights?

There is a truly vast amount of heavy tonnages being moved long distances and these consume the majority of shipping energy.

If this is your line of argument then it deserves some refining to move past a handwave.

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panick21_2y ago

Maybe 'vast majority' is an overestimation but there is a quite a lot of it.

People underestimate how many routes can be done with battery powered ships.

> If this is your line of argument then it deserves some refining to move past a handwave.

My argument was not limited to that. I also said there are other solution that are not direct usage of hydrogen.

defrostOP2y ago

First up, I'm pro energy transition, so I'm essentially 'on your side'.

I'd still like to see you make better arguments and work on the real world details (if you can be bothered) which will take time if you apply yourself.

eg: batteries

Sure .. somewhere there is the future.

Right now, though, the largest installer of city scale battery parks in the world Neoen has yet to crack 10 GW installed:

   As at 31 December 2021, the company's total capacity was 5.4 GW, made up of 50% solar, 38% wind and 12% battery storage. Neoen aims to attain 10 GW in operation and under construction by 2025.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoen

That's total globally after successively installing the three successive "biggest battery parks in the world" each larger than the other.

For a comparison point, Germany (a single mid sized European country) has a lowest overnight baseload minimum draw of 40 GW (all night long .. an then it ramps up).

Realistically batteries must scale to being able to provide 40 GW for an hour (or more!) .. which is provision of power x length of time.

And from there to scale out by a 100 and more locations.

So, there's some way to go here.

As for hydrogen and steel .. before you wave that away it might be worth looking into the concrete plans by the largest raw material providers for the largest steel plants globally.

https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2021/06/0...

https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2023/06/1...

These are the concrete plans of those who are committed to climate action, have access to world class engineers, and already provide 100's of millions of tonnes of raw iron ore per year to steel production already.

You don't have to agree with them, but they are taking action with several billion in capital backing them, so it pays to understand what they intend.

panick21_2y ago

Tesla has far more then 10GW installed globally.

That said, I am against using batteries, specifically lithium batteries for grid stabilization. I much rather not have grids that need that, sadly politically this is where we are going. To actually have grid stabilizing on a large scale with batteries, new battery technologies will have to come online. Things like 'Form Energy' and stuff like that. Neither batteries nor hydrogen currently are actually good solutions. Hydrogen has a bunch of issues in this application and if you look at totally deployed vs batteries its tiny. Again, reality doesn't seem to believe hydrogen is this great grid stability solution.

I rather have nuclear and not need anything other then maybe some Lithium for peak shaving and grid stabilization. But sadly we don't live in that reality, specially in Germany.

Germany has the delusional believe that they will get cheap hydrogen from Australia and Canada. Lots of plans and 'understanding' in reality Australia doesn't even have enough green electricity to make its own grid green, and they are way behind on things like electrification for cars, trains and trucks. Australia has a very, very, very long way to go, the idea that there will be some large cheap export of Green Hydrogen from Australia in my opinion is just fantasy pushed by some politically connected people in both countries who are selling a fantasy to get government money.

The claims from 2021 that by 2023 there will be all this green hydrogen from Australia, mmmhh we are in 2023 and I like to see some data on how much import there is from Australia right now. Again, lots of announcements, lots plans, lots of 'understanding' but tiny actual numbers.

Politically steel companies are under pressure to do something. They can mix hydrogen into their existing processes and make them slightly greener. Its kind of like Hybrid cars. It will make steel more expensive and many of the plans to really scale this relay on cheap green hydrogen to really be competitive. I'm not against it but I think moving to MOE is gone both cheaper and greener.

P.S:

> Germany, the country that is leading the fight against the global warming challenge in Europe

Pretty funny claims from the country with the dirtiest energy mix in Western Europe.

defrostOP2y ago

> Tesla has far more then 10GW installed globally.

Good to hear - can you provide a link to back that up?

The company I linked above installed the Tesla battery parks that are the the three largest in the world and as their current total (including those) is under 10 GW I'd like to know about the others that make up your total.

> P.S: .. Germany ..

You haven't quoted me, that's not a claim I made.

I simply used Germany as an example of one Europeans's minimum overnight baseload - feel free to pick another.

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panick21_2y ago

Maybe 'vast majority' is an overestimation but there is a quite a lot of it.

People underestimate how many routes can be done with battery powered ships.

> If this is your line of argument then it deserves some refining to move past a handwave.

My argument was not limited to that. I also said there are other solution that are not direct usage of hydrogen.

defrostOP2y ago

First up, I'm pro energy transition, so I'm essentially 'on your side'.

I'd still like to see you make better arguments and work on the real world details (if you can be bothered) which will take time if you apply yourself.

eg: batteries

Sure .. somewhere there is the future.

Right now, though, the largest installer of city scale battery parks in the world Neoen has yet to crack 10 GW installed:

   As at 31 December 2021, the company's total capacity was 5.4 GW, made up of 50% solar, 38% wind and 12% battery storage. Neoen aims to attain 10 GW in operation and under construction by 2025.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoen

That's total globally after successively installing the three successive "biggest battery parks in the world" each larger than the other.

For a comparison point, Germany (a single mid sized European country) has a lowest overnight baseload minimum draw of 40 GW (all night long .. an then it ramps up).

Realistically batteries must scale to being able to provide 40 GW for an hour (or more!) .. which is provision of power x length of time.

And from there to scale out by a 100 and more locations.

So, there's some way to go here.

As for hydrogen and steel .. before you wave that away it might be worth looking into the concrete plans by the largest raw material providers for the largest steel plants globally.

https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2021/06/0...

https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2023/06/1...

You don't have to agree with them, but they are taking action with several billion in capital backing them, so it pays to understand what they intend.

panick21_2y ago

Tesla has far more then 10GW installed globally.

I rather have nuclear and not need anything other then maybe some Lithium for peak shaving and grid stabilization. But sadly we don't live in that reality, specially in Germany.

P.S:

> Germany, the country that is leading the fight against the global warming challenge in Europe

Pretty funny claims from the country with the dirtiest energy mix in Western Europe.

defrostOP2y ago

> Tesla has far more then 10GW installed globally.

Good to hear - can you provide a link to back that up?

> P.S: .. Germany ..

You haven't quoted me, that's not a claim I made.

I simply used Germany as an example of one Europeans's minimum overnight baseload - feel free to pick another.

1 more reply

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