There just isn't enough room in this market for contributors to post on this many text-based apps. And so consolidation will happen.
1) Threads will dominate. Mastodon will be like remora fish.
2) Twitter will be the home for "freedom of speech", Crypto bros, OnlyFans girls.
3) Truth Social, Gab, Post, Blueksy, Spoutible etc will die.
Threads had 48m users just like that U2 album[1] sold 500m copies on iTunes.
[1] https://www.eonline.com/news/1071481/remember-when-apple-for...
Let’s see how many stick around. Don’t get me wrong, I suspect you’re right. But given the promotion and ease of login I’m not at all surprised to see huge day one login numbers. The question is whether people like what they see enough to stick around.
Being able to migrate existing accounts in seconds tends to do that. Let’s see how many stick around.
You discount Threads user going the “easy” route, but think they will somehow go the “hard” way ?
Heck, Threads doesn’t even need to show ads and the displacement of ad money away from Twitter will benefit Meta as much of that Twitter ad money will get redirected to Meta properties like FB and IG instead.
Zuckerberg has said that they won't run ads until there is a credible path to 1 billion users.
So for a year or more it will be Threads with no ads. And Twitter with according to their newly hired CEO "full-screen, sound-on" ads.
That seems kind of strange to me, though, because 1 billion is more than 3x the entire Twitter user base.
Also Insta has 1bn+ active MAUs and Meta us leaning heavily on Insta for Threads
