> amount of time new devs waste learning an impenetrable codebase, vs. the amount of time existing devs "waste" making the codebase more lucid by explaining their changes.

That's a false dichotomy. The codebase won't be impenetrable if there are appropriate comments in it. In my experience time would be better spent making the codebase more lucid in the source code than an external commit history. The commit messages should be good too but I only rely on them when something is impossible to understand without digging through and finding the associated ticket/motivation, which is a bad state to be in, so at that point a comment is added. Of course good commit messages are fine too, none of this precludes them.