I don't think one can easily compare HN to other forums, so saying the results are predictable is a bit harsh.
I have been in many irc channels that were extremely harsh on cluebies, but all the flaming turned into a sport by itself, and drove away from the content. The same goes for usenet, many subreddits, and Twitter.
I think HN is doing amazingly well after such a long time. It would be guesswork to say how it would end up with a less kind moderator. I for one would have left, but perhaps I'm too kind.
It is annoying that people spread misinformation, but a quick scan of a user's comment history often gives a good indication of their credibility.