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0 pointsberkes2y ago0 comments

> the leadership was mocking China's capability to build their own domenstic supply chain

Well, ASML is primarily and rightly very concerned that once "China" has their machines they'll attempt to reverse engineer them, ignore any western patents and IP and try to build 'Chinese chip machines'. It's happened to many industries, from Lego to fashion to hi tech. Hell, apparently there's even Chinese Knock-off Movies.

So, above everything else, there's a legitimate concern for ASML that once they move or deliver too much into China, they'll enable their own competition.

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dahwolf2y ago

ASML's EUV machines cannot be reverse engineered.

There's over a 100K parts, several of them from exclusive suppliers. You'd have to recreate several industries from scratch or somehow bribe all suppliers. You will absolutely fail to recreate the parts at all but even then if you hypothetically would, you can't put the machine together as if it's just a few bolts. It requires a team in the know months to do it, but you're not in the know. The tolerance for error is near-zero. Installing, configuring, running the machine, both hardware and software is extraordinarily complex.

None of this is a secret. The Chinese government announced a multi-billion dollar program to try and recreate such a machine from scratch. Expected timeline is 20 years with a highly uncertain outcome.

ASML does not have a concern to export to China, they want to export to China but are pressured to not do so by the US government.

berkesOP2y ago

> ASML's EUV machines cannot be reverse engineered.

Probably not as carbon-copy. But certainly important parts, or older versions.

ASML isn't just selling a millions-dollar-machine, they sell maintenance, support, upgrades, refurbishing. All these pieces are important in themselves, not just the whole assembled machine. Any single piece that can be reversed-engineered can be a danger to their moat.

This isn't just ASML, this is any hi-tech industry. I worked in power-plants, where ABB didn't just sell us gas-turbines, they sold a package, from Swiss engineers coming twice a year to help us tune them to "we now have these nozzles that make them 1.2% more efficient in hot weather, we can come replace them". Or the story on the HN frontpage recently, where Russian airlines are running out of brakes: just imagine being, say, a Russian factory that makes, say, brakes for Tupolevs and you can reverse-engineer Airbus brakes and start making them. High margins guaranteed.

So yes: ASML is rightfully very careful with Chinese competion and espionage¹

¹ https://nos-nl.translate.goog/artikel/2280228-wat-heeft-de-c...

ironborn1232y ago

All what you said may be true, but ASML would still be foolish to trust and export to China, given that the latter is hell bent on copying and reverse engg its products, even if unsuccessfully for now.

Dont assist even your incompetent adversary. Competition 101.

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