Knowing that the markets are massively distorted and unsustainable gets you nothing. Knowing the next wave of irrational distortion gets you good long-term returns. Good timing is either pure luck, insider information, or outright manipulation.
Back out the 13F SPY value: $886mm/2mm = ~$443
He owns 20k SPY puts (2mm/100) likely worth $10's of millions
I don't know the details in real life, but in the movie he was mildly early and losing money for a long time before the move started realizing. I and heard rumors that there were other players that were even earlier and had to close their positions before it realized in order to avoid going bankrupt.
BRB buying the book.
Source: I was there (working as a strat for Goldman in mortgages during the crisis).
Movie was a movie. It bothers me that the attention span of Americans is so short that they can't be bothered to look up the known and public facts of 2008 before making opinions on it.
Anyone know what strike price / expiration date on the puts?
The 13F notional value calculations are horrendous. There is simply no way of knowing how big of a bet it is, but I can all but guarantee that it isn’t remotely close to 80% of his portfolio.
This reminds me of the Litecoin / Walmart news where someone paid a journalist to report a bs headline. But at a larger scale.
The market does seem overpriced at the moment, particularly stocks like Nvidia undergoing some kind of correction, but it seems that the medium term trajectory is on the rise. I'm not sure what kind of huge downturn the market isn't going to be able to account for when phenomenal, unprecedented shocks like COVID are something it took in its stride even though prices are still recovering due to the debt so many companies took on. The bullish run of the past 6 months seems to have taken analysts by surprise so to be expected that some of them are now betting against its turn in the other direction.
