China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? (opens in new tab)

I'll believe it when I see it. The end-times of China's growth is like a broken record, except it goes dormant for a few years at a time.

Their debt crisis is pretty bad but not insurmountable in a country where the government controls more than 50% of the banking infrastructure.

The main problem they face right now is a crisis of confidence in their consumer market, this is decidedly easier to fix with mechanisms that won't re-inflate the property bubble.

Demographic shifts sure. Because similar to Japan they have net-zero or even net-negative immigration they will need to fix that internally but it's a 10-20 years out problem, not a now problem.

For now I'm in wait and see mode. China has more powerful tools than other economies to correct these sorts of problems so there is a good chance like 2015 that this blows over too.

They haven't completed the uplift from simple agrarian to fully industrial farming. There's a way to go yet.

China found the solution to defeat western capitalism --- a blended model that was internally communist but externally capitalist.

At the same time, they revealed a natural tendency to break up this successful model --- by allowing authoritarian communist mentality to exert too much influence and control over the productive capitalist side.

Capitalism has obvious inherent weaknesses which China recognized and exploited to great advantage for decades. At the same time, Communism also has inherent weaknesses which they may recognize but appear to lack the fortitude to resist. What we are witnessing now is turmoil from the collision of the these bipolar personalities.

Now we wait for the evil regime to collapse