As soon as a critical mass of carriers across the world adopt esim the space will absolutely be used for something else. Apple is forcing the issue, trying to force carriers to adopt it. No other phone company has the leverage that Apple does. They have a lock on the majority of high value customers. A carrier that does not support the latest iPhone will lose customers to one that does. I expect more countries to be esim only for the iPhone 15. I think China will be the big issue, don’t think any carriers there support it. And of course the carriers there aren’t exactly subject to competitive pressures.

As to why Apple is pushing esim I can imagine several reasons. Number 1 is just the space in the phone itself. I also think that Apple would love a world where people didn’t go the carrier stores. More people would buy directly from them and then get pitched all the Apple stuff instead of the carrier’s. Everything from accessories to insurance. I do think the world will much better once carriers are reduced to utilities and I think widespread esim usage would go a long ways towards that.