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0 pointsmckilljoy14y ago0 comments

Yes, Martingale's doesn't raise your expected value above zero/negative for any games of chance. Towards infinity, it won't change your outcome -- you will still eventually loose all your money.

If you factor in the times the player went bankrupt, your win percent probably won't look so hot.

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noal14y ago

I'll clean up my code a bit and post it on pastebin, there's probably a mistake in my logic somewhere.

Overall; I agree [and having played my share of a variety of strategies] I found the data to be confusing, hence my peaked curiosity. :-)

noal14y ago

Though it did (in the simulation). The accumulated winnings with the limits on bankrupt and cashing out at 1500 created a over time win percentage in a otherwise negative-biased game?

mckilljoyOP13y ago

By definition, if there is negative expected value, simply changing your betting strategy won't help. Any short term fluctuations would be from "luck".

The famous MIT black jack team was able to 'take down the casino' by counting cards and waiting for expected value to swing positive, and then placing large bets at that time. If the game is truly random and negative (like all well-constructed casino games should be) then there should never been an opportunity for positive expected value.

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0 pointsmckilljoy14y ago0 comments

Yes, Martingale's doesn't raise your expected value above zero/negative for any games of chance. Towards infinity, it won't change your outcome -- you will still eventually loose all your money.

If you factor in the times the player went bankrupt, your win percent probably won't look so hot.

0 comments

noal14y ago

I'll clean up my code a bit and post it on pastebin, there's probably a mistake in my logic somewhere.

Overall; I agree [and having played my share of a variety of strategies] I found the data to be confusing, hence my peaked curiosity. :-)

noal14y ago

Though it did (in the simulation). The accumulated winnings with the limits on bankrupt and cashing out at 1500 created a over time win percentage in a otherwise negative-biased game?

mckilljoyOP13y ago

By definition, if there is negative expected value, simply changing your betting strategy won't help. Any short term fluctuations would be from "luck".

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse