I don't think so. When you say "it's not capable of actually reasoning", that's because it's a LLM; and if it "changes in the future", that's because the new system must no longer be a pure LLM. The appearance of reasoning in LLMs is an illusion.
Yes, many people reason based on pure pattern-matching and repeat opinions not because they've reasoned them but because they're what they've absorbed from other sources, but even the world's most unreasoned human being with at least functional cognition still uses an enormous amount of constant, daily, hourly self-directed decision-making for a vast variety of complex and simple, often completely spontaneous scenarios and tasks in ways that no machine we've yet built on Earth does or could.
Moreover, even when some humans say or "believe" things based on nothing more than what they've absorbed from others without really considering it in depth, they almost always do so in a particularly selective way that fits their cognitive, emotional and personal predispositions. This very selectiveness is a distinctly conscious trait of a self-aware being. Its something LLM's don't have as far as I've yet seen.
I guess what I'm really asking, what would you expect to observe to make it not illusory?
Bullshit is a good case to consider, actually. What is the relationship between bullshit and reasoning? You could argue that bullshit is fallacious reasoning, "pseudo-reasoning" based on incorrect rules of inference.
But these models don't use any rules of inference; they produce output that resembles the result of reasoning, but without reasoning. They are trained on text samples that presumably usually are the result of human reasoning. If you trained them on bullshit, they'd produce output that resembled fallacious reasoning.
No, I don't think the touchstone for actual reasoning is a human mind. There are machines that do authentic reasoning (e.g. expert systems), but LLMs are not such machines.
