Their point was something along the lines of "it doesn't take a genius to buy low and sell high".

My counter point, to which I don't believe I ever got a response, was "oh? try it then"

Markets are easy to read in hindsight. Most folks are predicting a housing market correction over the next 12 months. But, they've been doing that for the past 12 months too, and it hasn't really happened yet (very mild).

So, when to buy? The answer is that it's quite complicated, and the work is in the individual deal - it requires a lot of research, understanding neighborhoods, WFH trends, how to spot "lipstick on a pig" house flips, regulatory issues, flood zones, insurance rates, mortgage rates, warrantable vs non-warrantable loans and what properties qualify, hurricane standards, wiring, electrical service, plumbing, STR income, occupancy rates, management fees, cleaning fees and quality, long term rental income, renter risk profiles and a million other things that go into understanding whether a deal will make money.

No, it doesn't take a genius, but it does take a lot of hard work.