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0 pointsblibble2y ago0 comments

> In any case, it seems very silly to discount prediction markets because the probability didn't work the way you expected it to in a single event.

prediction markets participants are idiots with no underlying knowledge betting according to their bias

they are no different to the "markets" created at the dog track

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johnfn2y ago

If that were true then the results of prediction markets wouldn't closely track the actual results that happen, as the link I provided shows that they do. Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going?

blibbleOP2y ago

> Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going?

as someone who has spent most of their career working on trading floors watching professional traders do their jobs

I'm perfectly happy staying the hell away from prediction "markets", thank you very much

johnfn2y ago

I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.

blibbleOP2y ago

> I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.

you have completely misunderstood

I have zero interest in losing money by "investing" in outcomes of events that are essentially random

because it's not investing, it's gambling

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johnfn2y ago

blibbleOP2y ago

> Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going?

as someone who has spent most of their career working on trading floors watching professional traders do their jobs

I'm perfectly happy staying the hell away from prediction "markets", thank you very much

johnfn2y ago

I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.

blibbleOP2y ago

> I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.

you have completely misunderstood

I have zero interest in losing money by "investing" in outcomes of events that are essentially random

because it's not investing, it's gambling

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse