I just quit photographing weddings (and other stuff) this year. It's a job where the forecast really impacts you, so you tend to pay attention.

The amount of brides I've had to calm down when rain was forecast for their day is pretty high. In my experience, in my region, precipitation forecasts more than 3 days out are worthless except for when it's supposed to rain for several days straight. Temperature/wind is better but it can still swing one way or the other significantly.

For other types of shoots I'd tell people that ideally we'd postpone on the day of, and only to start worrying about it the day before the shoot.

I'm in Minnesota, so our weather is quite a bit more dynamic than many regions, for what it's worth.

I know at a minimum that hurricane forecasts have gotten significantly better over time. We can now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml

Our 96 hour projections are as accurate today as the 24 hour projections were in 1990.

Looks like https://sites.research.google/weatherbench/ attempts to "benchmark" different forecast models/systems.

They're very cautious about naming a "best" model though!

> Weather forecasting is a multi-faceted problem with a variety of use cases. No single metric fits all those use cases. Therefore,it is important to look at a number of different metrics and consider how the forecast will be applied.