I didn't follow that at all, but it seems plausible to me. "China is an evil empire hellbent on world domination" can reasonably be written off as shallow propaganda by a foreign adversary; "China is a fragile coalition of different groups that could easily shatter under stress" is far more dangerous to the CCP's ideology of a unified state, people, and most importantly party to lead them. The former seems like nonsense to anyone who has lived in China, while the latter resonates. The latter also has the shadow of history cast over it: the greatest threats to China have usually been internal division and discord, not external threats.