People don't seem to realise this is already playing out with semiconductors. Huawei didn't go away despite crushing sanctions. Same for Longsoon. Both still need fabs, both are now captive customers of SMIC despite previously being huge customers of TSMC. SMIC now has the required guaranteed volume to sink money into new nodes instead of just making automotive/appliance level chips. This whole thing is going to go down as the worst blunder in geopolitical maneuvers of all time. While the West completely controlled the most important parts of the pipeline they always had innate advantage. Trump gave that up for a one time, single decade advantage forcing Biden to double down to try make the best out of a slow motion train crash.