Highly doubt MS will ever be successful on mobile... their last OS was pretty great and they were willing to pay devs to develop, they just couldn't get it going. This is from someone who spent a ton of time developing on PocketPC and Windows Mobile back in the day.
Products are not the reason for their resurgence.
Apple makes a ton in services, but their R&D is heavily focused on product and platform synergy to that ecosystem extremely valuable.