undefined | Better HN

0 pointsxtreme2y ago0 comments

I'm nitpicking, but the expected value for a project with a 50/50 chance of either (a) making $3m or (b) losing $1m is $1m. Not $2m.

0 comments

Just wondering, is it because 3 * 0.5 + (-1) * 0.5 = 1.5 - 0.5 = $1M?

zamfi2y ago

yes

zamfi2y ago

Ugh, you are totally right. I originally had making $5m but then changed it and not the EV :facepalm:

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsxtreme2y ago0 comments

I'm nitpicking, but the expected value for a project with a 50/50 chance of either (a) making $3m or (b) losing $1m is $1m. Not $2m.

Just wondering, is it because 3 * 0.5 + (-1) * 0.5 = 1.5 - 0.5 = $1M?

zamfi2y ago

yes

zamfi2y ago

Ugh, you are totally right. I originally had making $5m but then changed it and not the EV :facepalm:

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse