Only if the app makes a series of decisions that lead to that outcome.

They can either stick with the 15%/30% commission without install fees. Let’s assume it has a revenue of >$1m, so that would be 30%.

Or they can opt into the new EU offering.

Then they’re immediately subject to a €0.50/unique install in 12 months per install in the EU over they reach a 1M installs in the EU.

The baseline is just that, that install fee. Which Apple calls the Core Technology Fee (CTF), in other words a fee for using Apple’s IP in your app.

If they also choose to distribute via the App Store then they’ll pay a commission of 17% and if they also choose to use IAP then they pay an additional 3% in processing fees.

Ironically, the CTF pushes bigger devs to use alternative stores, assuming they will offer a lower commission rate than 17%.

But it’s definitely possible to only pay the CTF if so desired.