The major issue we've seen was showcased in Germany [0] where renewable sources simultaneously destroyed profits and drove record high prices for consumers, because they were bought in by a program of subsidies that decoupled retail and wholesale prices. As long as solar demand is driven by actual market forces, then it'll follow the usual market dynamic of more entrants with lower costs leading to lower prices. The only way that can't happen is if legislators roll in to do something stupid, like a special subsidy.
There are also the secondary reliability issues; things like the Texas cold snap a few years ago where wind was so unreliable the contingency plans just assumed it wasn't there from what I recall. But then the reliable generation didn't work either and it was a double whammy into major crisis. That will do weird things to profits, I won't attempt to forecast that one.
[0] I don't speak German so if someone wants to challenge this go ahead, but the prices seemed to speak for themselves.
Nope. With actual market forces you end up with Texas-like situations.
The fundamental problem with the electricity market is that as soon as you're not using fossils fuel to produce it, there's a disconnect between what you pay for(energy, in kWh) and what you actually need the supply side to provide (power, in Watt).
When using fossil fuel it's all good because the costs for the producer come from the fuel cost, which is cost for energy. But with whatever else (be it nuclear, solar, hydro, wind…) the producer costs aren't related to energy production but to power installation, hence the market is fundamentally unable to reconcile the two sides.
And when marginal cost is zero price goes to zero as well (unless there is scarcity or artificial scarcity thanks to a sort of monopoly or cartel)
This easy to understand: imagine that A and B have invested in capacity production. If A sells at x dollars, B will sells at x-0.1 dollars stealing the market to A. Etc... there is no bottom since the marginal cost is zero.
The Texas situation was low costs leading to low prices.
But the reliability of renewables isn't to a high enough standard so it'll do odd things to the profits of the remaining suppliers. They probably won't drop by as much as a naive prediction would estimate.
As you pointed out the reliable energy failed, but it was all due to bad regulation and lack of enforcement. IE if Texas had never put up a single windmill they'd still have
Texas, last time I lived there, windmills and all, didn't have high energy prices. Many Texas energy experts do claim windmills do help prices more than hurt them (not an expert myself but living in Houston and working with energy companies this came up a lot).
Nevertheless I learned, much to my surprise, that most of the state's natural gas system (which supplies the majority of energy for electrical generation and lots of home heating) had frozen. I (naively) thought that would be impossible since methane doesn't even turn into a liquid at any temperature ever to occur on Earth, but it turns out there's plenty of water mixed in hydrocarbon deposits.
I suspect the governor knew (or could easily have been told) all this, he just thinks he leads a state full of fools, and after a lifetime of observation, I'm inclined to concur.
But it is too late now and insofar as there may be a problem, it is one for the Germans.
What do you mean? Showcased when in Germany? What prices are you referring to and in what period of time?
There was nothing said about Germany in the article, I'm trying to understand what you're suggesting here.
Full disclosure: I have rooftop solar and also benefit from net metering, so I am not speaking as one who can’t see why the consumer desires those things.
There is no way power companies and solar rooftop can coexist with one of those seeking to gain additional profits every quarter.
So while I may be incorrect I do believe that power companies should be own by the state/what ever. As it is impossible to have coexistence between a future of renewable energies and microgrids and a company seeking profitability quarter after quarter.
If we don't they'll do exactly what they are doing, increase rates everytime possible, increase level of certification required (new UL codes every year, new weird requirements for wall mounted batteries, building code requirements, etc etc). They'll get new laws passed making it nearly impossible to add solar panels to your house. Taking years to get permits, etc. What ever they need to do.
Even simply allowing to use the grid to co-consume electricity from it while ALSO using rooftop solar for self-consumption, without ability to feed solar power back into the grid, is a small-time subsidy now, and will be a huge subsidy a few years down the road. Because it means rejecting all the cheap energy which utility can produce with solar (which will become nearly free very soon, and is already quite cheap), and consume only the most expensive electricity the utility produces.
Net metering was always meant to be a temporary perk, it will cease to exist soon. Then crackdowns on rooftop solar will follow (people will be allowed to either have an off-grid solar+batteries setups, or use the grid, but not both at same time).
