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0 pointsseadan832y ago0 comments

Do you have citations? I can think of alternative & plausible explanations:

- the used car industry is just barren post-pandemic. Prices are up and inventory is super low [1]

- EVs are generally not that old! Why put a BEV up as a used car when it's just a few years old? The average age of a used car is 6.1 years (according to CBC in Sep-2023) [2]. Further, that 'used car' age is up from 4 years, which further indicates the first point that the used car market is very short on supply. Most of Tesla's sales have been in just the last 4 years [3], Tesla represents a lot of BEV car sales in the US (going from memory, it was about 75% and is down to around 55%). In such a short amount of time, most BEVs are essentially still brand new. Thus, BEVs not being in the 'used' market is somewhat expected since they are half the age of the average used car, most of them are under 4 years old.

Thus, their lack of presence in the used car market could easily be more a function of their age (relatively brand new) compared to: "don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance."

[1] https://www.cbtnews.com/the-state-of-used-car-prices-why-are...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/3-things-to-consider-when-bu...

[3] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-mil...

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WorldMaker2y ago

That CNBC article points out one of the big sea changes in the fast recent jumps from a used car average of 3 years (for decades prior to ~2017) to 4 years (prior to 2019) to 6 years is a big change by rental car companies to hold rental fleets longer. The biggest sea change for rental companies over the last few years has been a switch to a higher balance of BEVs in their fleets. It certainly seems to me to be causative, the used car age average is rising for the first time in my lifetime just as BEV ownership is rising doesn't seem to be a correlative coincidence and more indirect evidence that the BEV first owner lifetime is higher than historic ICE averages. (Possibly much higher given that 4 to 6.1 year jump in just one calendar year.)

The early EVs have passed their 10 year marks. Some are closer to 15 years. There's a very long tail of BEVs already on the road. The only models that statistically have shown "battery degradation" enough to remark on have been the early model years of the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf before both companies invested in active thermal management of their batteries. So far "to remark on" was "noticeable compared to factory spec", but most of those batteries remained in first use (as car batteries). I've heard of Nissan Leaf battery replacements as a mini-industry, but not due to battery degradation, due to massive jumps in density upgrading the early Leafs to larger range than their original spec. There doesn't seem to be much of a market yet for Tesla battery replacements and most of the numbers thrown around are speculation and/or misinformation.

seadan83OP2y ago

Thanks for the reply. Your hypothesis seems more plausible now to me FWIW. Before I would outright agree (in order to be convinced), I'd like to see more evidence/data that used car prices are being driven by low maintenance requirements of EVs and that it is not other factors.

Another thing to consider, the picture is changing quite a bit somewhat recently. The supply crunch is fading, used car prices are coming down [1], and the effects of higher interest rates is taking hold. Would you say those recent trends are consistent with your hypothesis?

[1] https://money.com/used-car-prices-cheaper-tesla-ev/

tguvot2y ago

so, about market for tesla battery replacement: https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1akc3bz/wifes_20...

callalex2y ago

Preface: I am not familiar with Tesla, they tend to do their own thing.

When my early-2000’s Prius battery died Toyota only offered a full swap out for $insane. However there were 4 different shops within cheap/free towing distance that would swap out individual failed battery cells for around 1k with a multi-year warranty. It is my understanding that most EV batteries are in the same boat. So, like many stories, I would not count this post against all EVs, just against stupid Teslas.

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oblio2y ago

> There's a very long tail of BEVs already on the road.

At best they're 0.5% of the total number of vehicles in use.

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